Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1a8be7852bb636baef40a3fab5e2627c803c514852bd6523cc2c123a87f59c

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $236,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $160,456

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,376 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	13,554$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.55	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	11,764$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.56	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa550…836fbacked Yes	0c	8,928$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.81	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	8cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	0c	6,928$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	6,528$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.98	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	6,487$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.75	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	4c	5,800$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.7	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5052…cf5cbacked Yes	0c	5,095$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes	4c	2,887$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.22	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa568…b810backed Yes	18c	2,809$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	0c	2,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48ac…7784backed Yes	0c	2,488$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.94	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,281$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.46	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	2c	1,700$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.7	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,687$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.02	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	6c	1,234$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.16	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3837…a012backed Yes	1c	1,157$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	7c	1,050$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes	8c	999.99$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	999.94$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7789…a280backed Yes	22c	901.69$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	3c	860.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	5c	817.77$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes	20c	540$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	233	21%49 W · 184 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	504.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	3c	500.42$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	493.01$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.86	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b01…b6cebacked Yes	5c	480.56$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.41	82	18.3%15 W · 67 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes	3c	467.26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	416.43$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.05	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes	12c	410$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	119	18.5%22 W · 97 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fb…d610backed Yes	15c	399.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+41%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	18c	301.07$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.66	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x922f…8c21backed Yes	17c	280$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.6	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-57%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes	17c	230$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.1	47	17%8 W · 39 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45f5…e073backed Yes	14c	205$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.75	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	10c	199.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0179…d651backed Yes	22c	187.09$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes	9c	167.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	93	21.5%20 W · 73 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11de…9947backed Yes	19c	164.76$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.87	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0919…fcbcbacked Yes	8c	159.56$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+44%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…86a3backed Yes	14c	152.78$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	21c	138.59$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.49	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc10a…46b5backed Yes	14c	112.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…e476backed Yes	20c	111.11$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa123…bd4abacked Yes	22c	105.36$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a48…d8f8backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x477b…7b63backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	98	28.6%28 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…8d4cbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	12cpaid	-88.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cd…f0bfbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa544…3315backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa596…1d4cbacked Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	79c	94.29$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	510	18.2%93 W · 417 L	-89.7wins	-0.18per pick	36cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x92b4…3cf1backed Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes	24c	83.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	124	29%36 W · 88 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+110.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…5441backed Yes	21c	71.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8a…f9e1backed Yes	21c	68.57$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	20.9%37 W · 140 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f8…ccacbacked Yes	20c	60$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No	79c	56.55$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.69	29	75.9%22 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	69cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03dd…163bbacked Yes	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23b3…2a82backed No	80c	27.72$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.54	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa22a…58cdbacked No	79c	25.94$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.45	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+74.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1630…97bcbacked No	80c	25.86$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.17	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb834…6487backed No	79c	25.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.39	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+67.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed No	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3b…c508backed No	80c	16.71$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.34	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?this page
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?Yes won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event