Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61f92f54e2439ce8331dea98b3806deee75d9acdf1019ee9c612ba9888bd8f1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $437,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $310,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 0c | 28,805$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde7c…ccd6backed Yes | 2c | 16,400$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…1924backed Yes | 4c | 13,235$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.22 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 3c | 10,948$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.2 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd32…0df4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 9,774$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.14 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Yes | 6c | 9,670$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.19 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 3c | 7,794$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.79 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 5c | 7,407$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.53 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 7c | 7,233$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 2c | 6,928$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes | 1c | 6,888$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 1c | 5,683$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,673$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.95 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8038…72cfbacked Yes | 8c | 5,574$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 4c | 5,400$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 5,050$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.3 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 4c | 4,663$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…cf5cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,865$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,760$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 1c | 3,520$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 6c | 3,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.91 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7d…a447backed Yes | 0c | 2,770$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…794cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,699$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 2,600$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 1c | 2,570$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 2c | 2,190$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +344.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed Yes | 4c | 2,173$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…ed8fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,163$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…5a62backed Yes | 5c | 2,160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa505…0a8abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.67 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 4c | 1,900$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 11c | 1,895$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.82 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,885$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +219.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…b810backed Yes | 27c | 1,861$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…4e40backed Yes | 3c | 1,837$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 1,611$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.31 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,555$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a6…fe97backed Yes | 2c | 1,546$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,539$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.54 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,429$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,359$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…2160backed Yes | 10c | 1,307$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 8c | 1,303$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…61eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 1,237$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,215$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,100$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.3 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,041$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 71c | 999.94$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.98 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 985.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…a9fdbacked Yes | 2c | 968.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 8c | 956.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 5c | 949.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 158 | 20.9%33 W · 125 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…4d35backed Yes | 5c | 946.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 4c | 847.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…19e7backed Yes | 12c | 838.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed Yes | 24c | 820.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 816.63$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.83 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 2c | 807.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…67d0backed Yes | 13c | 806.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 29c | 692.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…905dbacked Yes | 24c | 619.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 587.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 8c | 578.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 7c | 555.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 110 | 9.1%10 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 4c | 542.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…acf8backed Yes | 5c | 528.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 21c | 520.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 511.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 73c | 500$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 24c | 499.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…2e95backed Yes | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 5c | 499.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 8c | 499.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 5c | 475.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 472$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…9490backed Yes | 15c | 466.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd9…1dc7backed Yes | 5c | 408.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…0d30backed Yes | 26c | 390$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 386.36$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 22c | 378.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 378.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…83d6backed Yes | 5c | 370.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Yes | 29c | 350.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…47ccbacked Yes | 29c | 334.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 8c | 334.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes | 24c | 316$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 69c | 299.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 30c | 295.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…92b1backed Yes | 31c | 281.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…8c21backed Yes | 32c | 279.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.