Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81cf3f03aa3f2a297485df5855df13364628b07823fd27f71077d88d42233a86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $498,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $379,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 452 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 8c | 25,677$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.81 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 18c | 12,505$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.72 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 4c | 10,880$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.77 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 15c | 10,628$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.33 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 13c | 9,800$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.26 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes | 17c | 9,797$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.33 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 20c | 9,340$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.17 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a6…fe97backed Yes | 9c | 8,124$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 20c | 8,065$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.34 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 7c | 8,000$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…b810backed Yes | 47c | 7,871$3,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,710.55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 22c | 7,539$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.54 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 17c | 6,928$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.63 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 22c | 6,800$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 72c | 6,773$4,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.86 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 27c | 5,974$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.66 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 4c | 5,400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 5c | 5,274$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.92 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 13c | 4,777$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.15 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 28c | 4,407$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.59 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 71c | 4,263$3,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.88 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 5c | 4,257$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.64 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 22c | 4,215$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.51 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 26c | 3,871$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked No | 77c | 3,262$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.79 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 20c | 3,180$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 39c | 3,153$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.43 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 3,100$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 24c | 2,968$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.89 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 76c | 2,863$2,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.12 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 69c | 2,861$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.8 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes | 30c | 2,803$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.85 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 36c | 2,777$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.71 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 72c | 2,627$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.51 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 39c | 2,534$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed No | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 14c | 2,170$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.11 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 18c | 2,051$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.1 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Yes | 31c | 1,970$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.88 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 34c | 1,930$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.63 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 8c | 1,905$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.35 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…0f8abacked Yes | 1c | 1,856$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 28c | 1,849$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.62 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,817$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 18c | 1,765$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.74 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 18c | 1,761$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.24 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 27c | 1,700$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 19c | 1,681$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.88 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…7fdfbacked Yes | 38c | 1,645$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 19c | 1,553$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.34 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbf…dffebacked Yes | 34c | 1,450$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…7dcfbacked No | 76c | 1,431$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 16c | 1,429$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 31c | 1,400$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…2160backed Yes | 28c | 1,388$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.71 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,363$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.44 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +219.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8086…4d3dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,326$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…0d42backed Yes | 38c | 1,298$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.54 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…be55backed Yes | 20c | 1,248$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.92 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 1,150$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.13 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,128$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…59d2backed Yes | 18c | 1,112$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 4c | 1,102$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 76c | 1,077$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.32 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…3e5abacked Yes | 18c | 1,060$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.9 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 73c | 1,033$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.28 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…ed8fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,020$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 8c | 1,002$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…0689backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…51e8backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…c7aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 15c | 999.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 20c | 996.19$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 949.44$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.31 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 68c | 884.37$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.42 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 31c | 877.7$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…d945backed Yes | 28c | 869.94$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed Yes | 23c | 865.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 855.75$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.96 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 9c | 850.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 21c | 840.63$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 36c | 837.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 8c | 822.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed Yes | 40c | 820$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 805.32$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.21 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked Yes | 16c | 799.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 19c | 799.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.02 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 23c | 795.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.26 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 27c | 752.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 5c | 719.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed No | 80c | 706.86$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.37 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 18c | 705.02$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.85 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…bf7bbacked Yes | 28c | 690.38$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.94 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 75c | 668.73$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.73 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.