Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56e8c2092b6f71f87c53b77bee488bec42f5b7b8339983a6c5474434ac980f05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $506,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $454,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $506,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 20,553$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 0c | 18,415$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 0c | 16,968$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,979$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 0c | 13,273$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d41…2dfabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,367$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 2c | 7,552$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.31 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…2626backed Yes | 1c | 6,626$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 1c | 4,820$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 4,650$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4175…c01fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,127$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…209cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,983$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 2c | 3,552$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,532$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…91c2backed Yes | 2c | 3,531$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,466$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…2e95backed Yes | 4c | 3,349$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…99c2backed Yes | 1c | 2,654$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…8bd0backed Yes | 0c | 2,550$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,331$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 3c | 2,213$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,205$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed Yes | 0c | 2,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1902…ffc4backed Yes | 1c | 1,905$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 2c | 1,783$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,777$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…2d44backed Yes | 1c | 1,758$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,749$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4aa…44bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,533$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…3809backed Yes | 1c | 1,517$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 1c | 1,426$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…08c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,251$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +97%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…06fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,167$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8f6bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 1,080$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.57 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,023$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,009$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 135 | 6.7%9 W · 126 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 908.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 871$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46fd…a0a7backed Yes | 2c | 627.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 8c | 586.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes | 10c | 505.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes | 9c | 448.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ed…cfc6backed Yes | 9c | 422.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…3aa2backed Yes | 5c | 413.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…52a2backed Yes | 4c | 398.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…5882backed Yes | 3c | 394.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 370.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 321.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 313.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 5c | 224.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…fd2fbacked Yes | 8c | 197.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…905dbacked Yes | 9c | 184.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes | 9c | 174.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 8c | 171.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1a…6506backed Yes | 10c | 149.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0142…05e0backed Yes | 10c | 135.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…4deabacked Yes | 10c | 106$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…b5d4backed Yes | 12c | 97.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.