Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff8b19e11c156df43610afe1694b4b6a9eea5d6caf2bc6f8de4c2c9ec01901a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $468,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $527,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $468,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 483 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 15c | 10,866$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.2 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f5…423ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed No | 9c | 10,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.86 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 78c | 9,376$7,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.14 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed No | 12c | 7,800$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.24 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 26c | 7,117$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.77 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 75c | 6,928$5,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.13 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 56c | 6,418$3,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,801.2 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 37c | 6,260$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.38 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 9c | 5,953$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,427.13 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ad…f700backed Yes | 68c | 5,584$3,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.57 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 32c | 4,715$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,198.08 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…b810backed Yes | 54c | 4,671$2,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 14c | 4,279$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.94 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 65c | 4,231$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.99 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…0095backed No | 12c | 4,200$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 58c | 4,011$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.71 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 57c | 2,834$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.81 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 27c | 2,627$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.75 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes | 69c | 2,470$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.7 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…2160backed No | 7c | 2,419$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.97 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 57c | 2,339$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.39 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 48c | 2,244$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 37c | 2,192$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…351dbacked Yes | 63c | 2,186$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes | 78c | 2,117$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.57 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 62c | 2,008$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.07 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…0957backed No | 20c | 2,007$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f3…3a31backed No | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…4059backed No | 76c | 2,000$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.98 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +150.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 1,925$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.37 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,882$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.1 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…4c79backed Yes | 70c | 1,660$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.8 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…3c35backed Yes | 65c | 1,600$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.11 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…24a1backed Yes | 77c | 1,513$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.96 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed No | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed No | 39c | 1,500$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.48 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 61c | 1,481$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.59 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 10c | 1,456$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.88 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88f…4846backed No | 46c | 1,323$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 76c | 1,248$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.05 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…11cebacked Yes | 55c | 1,243$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 61c | 1,226$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.93 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…92d8backed Yes | 51c | 1,181$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.58 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed No | 17c | 1,174$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.95 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 61c | 1,166$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.26 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 61c | 1,148$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.01 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 56c | 1,131$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.45 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…1924backed Yes | 79c | 1,109$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.64 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5b…1ab3backed Yes | 60c | 1,100$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…fe32backed No | 40c | 1,100$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…be0ebacked Yes | 69c | 1,063$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…c99cbacked No | 22c | 1,060$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9a54backed Yes | 73c | 1,051$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 67c | 999.98$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.99 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 50c | 990.85$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.98 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 27c | 943.14$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.79 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…59a1backed No | 62c | 900$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…4501backed Yes | 51c | 893.57$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.84 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 38c | 892.67$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.7 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 58c | 857.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.96 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 46c | 853.35$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.94 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 64c | 826.76$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.76 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…8cf3backed No | 78c | 799.98$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.99 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 792.66$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.54 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…d847backed No | 64c | 787.12$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 46c | 780$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.94 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 765.46$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.53 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…f192backed No | 35c | 689.3$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 30c | 663.6$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.81 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d16…78f5backed Yes | 54c | 659.74$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 79c | 646.86$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.18 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ca…83febacked No | 16c | 640$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +465%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a150backed No | 40c | 633.56$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 37c | 627.3$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.3 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes | 19c | 620.82$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.82 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed No | 44c | 618.81$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.1 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 34c | 612.4$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.68 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 63c | 608.26$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.56 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed No | 47c | 600$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc2…f6b1backed No | 35c | 599.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 68c | 598.07$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.74 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 48c | 592.02$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.53 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…cac3backed No | 37c | 569.7$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.79 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 30c | 567.9$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.35 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes | 73c | 567.21$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 566$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.21 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b3…3ac2backed Yes | 62c | 527$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474a…c4cbbacked Yes | 58c | 514.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…6530backed Yes | 59c | 511.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +224.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91c…e067backed No | 38c | 510.36$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…ecacbacked No | 30c | 489.17$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.88 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf62a…aecfbacked Yes | 11c | 467.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +834.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa46a…8e39backed Yes | 50c | 462.94$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 59c | 457.82$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.66 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…07a2backed Yes | 68c | 455.73$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked No | 68c | 443.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 34c | 441.68$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.48 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.