TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$468,858
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$527,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $468,858 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 483 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb9c…072bbacked No15c10,866$1,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.213430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26f5…423ebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed No9c10,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.86429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes78c9,376$7,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.1419927.6%55 W · 144 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed No12c7,800$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.247815.4%12 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+57.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No26c7,117$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.7756429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes75c6,928$5,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.137116.9%12 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes56c6,418$3,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,801.228534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No37c6,260$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.3816969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes9c5,953$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,427.132359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes68c5,584$3,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.573520%7 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes32c4,715$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,198.0824115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa568…b810backed Yes54c4,671$2,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.81315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No14c4,279$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.941,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes65c4,231$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.9918722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ce…0095backed No12c4,200$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.97520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes58c4,011$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.7118424.5%45 W · 139 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes57c2,834$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.8175122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No27c2,627$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.757357.5%42 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes69c2,470$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.715246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb28…2160backed No7c2,419$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.974027.5%11 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes57c2,339$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.3910431.7%33 W · 71 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+125.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No48c2,244$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08115164.9%98 W · 53 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No37c2,192$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.14110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x022a…351dbacked Yes63c2,186$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes78c2,117$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.573265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes62c2,008$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.0746521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3327…0957backed No20c2,007$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.31944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f3…3a31backed No1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed No76c2,000$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,526.98429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+150.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c1,925$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.372,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe553…e95dbacked Yes54c1,882$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.15024%12 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes70c1,660$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.84829.2%14 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…3c35backed Yes65c1,600$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.113933.3%13 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde00…24a1backed Yes77c1,513$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.961855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed No2c1,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed No39c1,500$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.484932.7%16 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c3…d002backed Yes61c1,481$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.594323.3%10 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes10c1,456$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.884216.7%7 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd88f…4846backed No46c1,323$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes76c1,248$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.0517434.5%60 W · 114 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaad…11cebacked Yes55c1,243$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes61c1,226$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.9343933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes51c1,181$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.582532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed No17c1,174$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9534127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Yes61c1,166$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.263764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.5wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+37.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes61c1,148$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.0143126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No56c1,131$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.453762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes79c1,109$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.64229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c5b…1ab3backed Yes60c1,100$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa22e…fe32backed No40c1,100$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33eb…be0ebacked Yes69c1,063$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.49875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a37…c99cbacked No22c1,060$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.561136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad90…9a54backed Yes73c1,051$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.05944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes67c999.98$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.997722.1%17 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb13…2de9backed No50c990.85$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.983554.3%19 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No27c943.14$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.799423.4%22 W · 72 L-16.1wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed No62c900$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5606527.7%18 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad5…4501backed Yes51c893.57$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.842433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed Yes38c892.67$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.78337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes58c857.96$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.968742.5%37 W · 50 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes46c853.35$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.949716.5%16 W · 81 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes64c826.76$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.763828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32056817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed No78c799.98$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.996518.5%12 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c792.66$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.5426167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x589b…d847backed No64c787.12$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.94785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes46c780$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.945529.1%16 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes33c765.46$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.5378811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4626…f192backed No35c689.3$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406420.3%13 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No30c663.6$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.8141017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d16…78f5backed Yes54c659.74$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.74540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes79c646.86$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.185427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ca…83febacked No16c640$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+465%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf04f…a150backed No40c633.56$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+108.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No37c627.3$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.310857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes19c620.82$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.827123.9%17 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed No44c618.81$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.18826.1%23 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-47.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes34c612.4$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.683408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes63c608.26$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.5615017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed No47c600$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816415.6%10 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc2…f6b1backed No35c599.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes68c598.07$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.7499619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes48c592.02$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.536417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd4b…cac3backed No37c569.7$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.794531.1%14 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes30c567.9$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.3563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes73c567.21$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.314822.9%11 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No69c566$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.2131565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b3…3ac2backed Yes62c527$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x474a…c4cbbacked Yes58c514.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.47475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+109.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcda…6530backed Yes59c511.34$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.341330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+224.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd91c…e067backed No38c510.36$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed No75c500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3751838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+114.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6f…ecacbacked No30c489.17$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.883243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf62a…aecfbacked Yes11c467.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+834.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa46a…8e39backed Yes50c462.94$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.15862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes59c457.82$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.6650319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd1…07a2backed Yes68c455.73$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked No68c443.03$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes34c441.68$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.4834427%93 W · 251 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.