Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe67b522f5930ba94c52ce41906d8fc94a089e70d3fb62dd43217d8ac354513d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $532,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $522,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $532,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 19,585$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.54 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6d…0446backed Yes | 2c | 12,384$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.81 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 11c | 10,326$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.77 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 2c | 7,835$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.14 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 7,587$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.06 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 8c | 5,761$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.89 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 13c | 5,588$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.78 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 5,390$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.7 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked No | 80c | 4,389$3,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.65 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…74f4backed Yes | 21c | 4,368$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +138%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 3c | 4,300$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 4c | 4,043$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,928$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.14 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…91c2backed Yes | 5c | 3,917$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,643$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 1c | 3,084$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 10c | 2,872$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.15 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 2,602$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8f6bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,533$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 10c | 2,389$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.86 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 2,378$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.75 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,918$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 1,821$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.83 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 21c | 1,665$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.9 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 18c | 1,505$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.09 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 24c | 1,466$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,428$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 6c | 1,330$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,302$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…085cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,286$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.37 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…652dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,216$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…67d0backed Yes | 19c | 1,210$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.85 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…209cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,202$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,192$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,172$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…51afbacked Yes | 21c | 1,121$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.14 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f56…07e6backed Yes | 21c | 1,094$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,027$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 5c | 1,006$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…c7aebacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 997.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 11c | 995.17$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 13c | 987.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.08 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414e…3ffdbacked Yes | 22c | 956.28$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 13c | 931.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…6530backed Yes | 22c | 918.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +224.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 910.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 6c | 900$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 110 | 9.1%10 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 21c | 823.42$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.44 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 80c | 800.55$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…b810backed Yes | 8c | 778.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 16c | 761.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 6c | 750$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked No | 67c | 744.88$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.88 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5048…4b29backed Yes | 15c | 733.32$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.43 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 13c | 730.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…2e95backed Yes | 20c | 675.73$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 21c | 670.79$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.74 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes | 7c | 629.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c68…878dbacked Yes | 18c | 618.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 3c | 600.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 135 | 6.7%9 W · 126 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes | 15c | 580.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb949…d03abacked No | 74c | 546.53$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd45…eebcbacked Yes | 18c | 528.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 11c | 527$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…523cbacked Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 11c | 509.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 70c | 506.68$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.06 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…3105backed Yes | 16c | 499.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 15c | 494.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…428ebacked Yes | 16c | 487.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 19c | 452.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 78c | 448.92$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 19c | 445.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…415abacked Yes | 5c | 438$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 29c | 435.47$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 431.54$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da7…cb65backed Yes | 6c | 429.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 8c | 420.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 17c | 400.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 14c | 399.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…2bc6backed Yes | 13c | 397.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…5a62backed Yes | 20c | 394.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1902…ffc4backed Yes | 8c | 383.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 22c | 370.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed No | 76c | 356.84$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 18c | 351.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes | 13c | 350$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…14f4backed Yes | 12c | 342.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 75c | 338.44$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 14c | 321.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes | 12c | 315.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d16…78f5backed Yes | 20c | 313.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.