Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc4b9ecbfac2c8e98fe18b35c4578a3c64e34ddfe16b1cf8a98ab3ad9d06c088
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,854,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,386,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,854,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,934 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 72c | 641,208$463,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463,940.63 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 12c | 230,121$26,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203,475.81 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…71cbbacked Yes | 20c | 202,588$40,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162,406.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.45per pick | 12cpaid | +277.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 15c | 195,136$29,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165,834.17 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…cbffbacked Yes | 20c | 88,983$17,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,196.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 10cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 70c | 70,115$49,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,251.45 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 39c | 64,947$25,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,803.62 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 22c | 61,346$13,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,141.96 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…8591backed Yes | 10c | 57,435$5,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,953.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 10cpaid | +873.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae1…52b9backed Yes | 26c | 56,159$14,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,557.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 19c | 55,050$10,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,590.59 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 19c | 52,695$10,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,683.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes | 24c | 52,093$12,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,426.47 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 9c | 48,280$4,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,152.17 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa130…05dcbacked Yes | 16c | 46,759$7,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,346.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 8cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…267bbacked Yes | 24c | 45,294$10,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,523.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 23cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5854…3f2ebacked Yes | 16c | 43,977$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,976.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 15cpaid | +329.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b54…5e38backed No | 18c | 37,705$6,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,884.46 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -7.0wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 71c | 34,916$24,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,860.61 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 73c | 32,969$23,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,993 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f23…ee8dbacked Yes | 31c | 32,616$9,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,633.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +226.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 71c | 32,551$23,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,074.09 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed No | 71c | 31,836$22,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,623.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 11c | 30,697$3,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,341.3 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked No | 80c | 30,540$24,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,410.01 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked No | 69c | 30,232$20,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,923.25 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…9881backed No | 77c | 30,020$22,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,992.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked Yes | 17c | 29,361$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,361.49 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 24c | 28,385$6,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,553.56 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…1f46backed Yes | 14c | 28,213$4,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,184.79 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +8.5wins | +0.56per pick | 30cpaid | +238%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…dbf8backed Yes | 72c | 27,756$19,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,808.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 26,892$5,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,343.04 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…ded2backed Yes | 19c | 26,849$5,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,654.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.42per pick | 21cpaid | +411.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 48c | 26,233$12,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,619.4 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 18c | 25,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,500 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 7c | 25,000$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,249.91 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 79c | 24,468$19,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,352.67 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 13c | 23,742$3,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,663.07 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 36c | 23,721$8,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,082.91 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…8955backed Yes | 21c | 23,691$4,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,693.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…312cbacked Yes | 22c | 23,029$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,028.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 21c | 21,854$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,264.4 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed Yes | 21c | 21,800$4,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,182.72 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +10.6wins | +0.62per pick | 26cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 78c | 21,060$16,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,361.43 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed No | 79c | 20,921$16,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,580.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 27c | 20,839$5,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,241.93 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…6b67backed Yes | 31c | 20,345$6,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,099.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…0bd8backed No | 74c | 20,311$15,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,114.08 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -7.7wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 10c | 20,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,000 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c6…cda3backed Yes | 20c | 19,957$3,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,965.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 29c | 19,890$5,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,220.19 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Yes | 27c | 19,201$5,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,032.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 22c | 19,029$4,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,845.63 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…6669backed Yes | 21c | 18,311$3,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,427.67 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…d6bebacked Yes | 18c | 17,487$3,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,314.12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 27c | 16,470$4,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,081.28 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…e32cbacked Yes | 14c | 16,338$2,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,976.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa089…2275backed Yes | 14c | 15,733$2,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,455.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 66c | 15,375$10,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,110.48 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…8192backed Yes | 28c | 15,000$4,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,855 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.27per pick | 17cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 73c | 14,951$10,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,978.38 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…232cbacked Yes | 11c | 14,913$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,283.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +215.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0789…cdb2backed Yes | 27c | 14,715$3,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,778.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +282.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…5e6abacked Yes | 32c | 13,803$4,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,348.01 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 30c | 13,775$4,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,705.87 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53c2…6758backed No | 11c | 13,724$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 26c | 13,677$3,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,180.86 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f75…4205backed Yes | 19c | 13,350$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,854.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92cd…9740backed Yes | 19c | 13,339$2,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,745.74 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 0c | 13,033$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…4e84backed Yes | 15c | 13,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,050 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d2…c66bbacked Yes | 33c | 12,992$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,692.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceec…4ad9backed Yes | 16c | 12,426$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,425.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +225.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 47c | 12,087$5,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,679.99 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f0…fa57backed Yes | 21c | 11,885$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,384.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +419.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471e…e6ddbacked Yes | 17c | 11,809$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,745.83 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +8.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +376.5%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…dee4backed Yes | 22c | 11,722$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,137.29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb5…9452backed Yes | 24c | 11,700$2,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,916.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c3…379abacked Yes | 31c | 11,543$3,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,948.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 17c | 11,478$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,502.74 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 49c | 11,320$5,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,741.33 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 18c | 11,228$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,228.07 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 77c | 11,128$8,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,518.02 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 79c | 11,066$8,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,766.63 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…43eabacked Yes | 18c | 10,995$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,983.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…92eebacked No | 78c | 10,804$8,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,468.02 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…d422backed Yes | 24c | 10,787$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,232.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…64e5backed Yes | 34c | 10,733$3,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,042.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…a0ccbacked Yes | 56c | 10,704$5,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,726.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 33c | 10,581$3,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,509.06 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 37c | 10,418$3,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,581.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 24c | 10,024$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,581.55 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes | 20c | 9,422$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,522.39 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes | 21c | 9,410$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,416.35 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 19c | 9,302$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,505.54 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 32c | 9,220$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,243.49 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…7c0abacked No | 79c | 9,000$7,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,075 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 29c | 8,883$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,322.53 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…2118backed Yes | 14c | 8,400$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,224 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0e…50c1backed Yes | 24c | 8,388$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,395.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.