Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1c048dd3c9458b6bf60734b037657917a95d5db99e35a3f500ccd2771b3212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $582,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $635,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $582,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 395 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 29c | 174,592$50,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,628.42 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b54…5e38backed Yes | 76c | 32,787$24,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800.15 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -7.0wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 70c | 23,201$16,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,048.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 19,840$13,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,278 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…1f46backed Yes | 61c | 19,520$12,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,516.74 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +8.5wins | +0.56per pick | 30cpaid | +238%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 30c | 19,310$5,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,709.48 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbe…b9dcbacked Yes | 74c | 14,983$11,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,840.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 25c | 14,657$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660.13 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 74c | 13,451$9,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,505.11 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed Yes | 78c | 13,276$10,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,908.23 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a0…6d87backed Yes | 77c | 11,951$9,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,723.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 65c | 10,400$6,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690.15 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb128…cf58backed Yes | 59c | 10,318$6,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,263.07 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed Yes | 73c | 10,259$7,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,784.81 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 26c | 7,618$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 23c | 7,565$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.38 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 24c | 7,484$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.4 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 75c | 6,948$5,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.35 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 72c | 5,528$3,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.01 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x727f…bdc6backed No | 43c | 5,439$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.44per pick | 57cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…7f67backed Yes | 76c | 5,294$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…c729backed Yes | 77c | 5,084$3,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…e211backed Yes | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 40c | 4,925$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 39c | 4,600$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.95 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 61c | 4,466$2,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.16 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 79c | 4,202$3,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.42 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x53c2…6758backed Yes | 77c | 4,188$3,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 30c | 4,037$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.44 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes | 76c | 4,004$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes | 63c | 4,000$2,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 22c | 3,915$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.99 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 32c | 3,600$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 63c | 3,550$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.5 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 24c | 3,512$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.06 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e6…882ebacked Yes | 63c | 3,136$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…a779backed Yes | 67c | 2,790$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.48 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 62c | 2,580$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.57 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 64c | 2,566$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.89 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 63c | 2,500$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed Yes | 70c | 2,409$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.89 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 64c | 2,400$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.82 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 27c | 2,320$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.6 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes | 74c | 2,313$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 64c | 2,106$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.51 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…b019backed Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +7.8wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…4f89backed Yes | 63c | 1,999$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Yes | 75c | 1,726$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.47 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 24c | 1,685$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.47 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef3…272cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,672$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 77c | 1,634$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.95 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…5e2fbacked No | 20c | 1,576$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 38c | 1,500$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.99 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,480$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 23c | 1,453$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.32 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 37c | 1,453$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.98 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked No | 38c | 1,400$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…e366backed Yes | 75c | 1,327$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…3980backed Yes | 75c | 1,319$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.64 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 1,275$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.53 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…0261backed Yes | 65c | 1,231$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.77 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…1c5cbacked Yes | 74c | 1,201$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.37 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 80c | 1,183$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.08 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…c01abacked No | 21c | 1,152$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -7.7wins | -0.52per pick | 58cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…eedfbacked Yes | 62c | 1,061$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.29 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222f…8271backed Yes | 71c | 1,035$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 77c | 1,031$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.45 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 25c | 1,018$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.13 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…89b4backed Yes | 64c | 1,005$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 62c | 1,004$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.99 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…741fbacked No | 27c | 1,003$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.86 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…c50ebacked No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 38c | 999.99$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 62c | 999.99$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 61c | 874.28$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.99 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 23c | 846$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.34 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 65c | 829.52$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.27 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…1508backed Yes | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 803.85$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.77 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…a216backed Yes | 64c | 799.99$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…14ecbacked Yes | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…a185backed Yes | 63c | 769.22$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e53…22edbacked Yes | 75c | 713.33$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 8c | 700$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…2949backed Yes | 60c | 662.28$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 24c | 647.6$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.29 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 6c | 600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 6c | 599.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 61c | 599.98$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.99 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…edb3backed Yes | 68c | 598.14$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +279.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf883…ca6dbacked Yes | 69c | 581.01$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…8f06backed Yes | 79c | 580$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b58…4838backed Yes | 73c | 548.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…a9b9backed Yes | 65c | 543.85$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +201.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…b220backed Yes | 63c | 542.99$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.46 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.