Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38c0342fb672f38ad0990e98d6cc81d021a0c210fdb8c23ff086742b8a873c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,803,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,407,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,803,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 79c | 511,991$403,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108,845.33 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 13c | 267,689$34,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,888.82 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…8680backed Yes | 11c | 100,020$11,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,308.24 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…8955backed Yes | 16c | 61,718$10,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,050.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 1c | 54,613$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.11 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6e…8931backed Yes | 2c | 49,038$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.75 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 46,996$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.1 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 18c | 40,373$7,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,418.55 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15eb…86b3backed Yes | 4c | 39,814$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 9c | 36,459$3,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,141.52 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 0c | 35,817$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 2c | 30,757$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.91 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 2c | 29,331$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.32 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 66c | 27,713$18,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,427.83 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…fa25backed Yes | 4c | 27,304$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9863…cccabacked Yes | 10c | 25,720$2,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,451.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x452c…7449backed Yes | 16c | 25,215$4,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,050.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 13c | 22,458$2,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,992.23 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…6b67backed Yes | 15c | 21,316$3,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,218.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8c9dbacked Yes | 17c | 19,343$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,316.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes | 5c | 19,252$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.84 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 23c | 19,113$4,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,398.21 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 3c | 15,000$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 56c | 15,000$8,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,589.94 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…8192backed Yes | 13c | 15,000$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.27per pick | 17cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,334$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a9…d60cbacked Yes | 4c | 14,045$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 8c | 13,318$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.15 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x301c…31b8backed Yes | 4c | 13,281$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…e256backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 77c | 11,998$9,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.53 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 79c | 11,706$9,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408.73 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 16c | 11,233$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.61 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 4c | 11,130$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.94 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…a78dbacked Yes | 22c | 11,071$2,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.65 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…72f4backed Yes | 12c | 11,035$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 71c | 10,913$7,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,216.41 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…99a2backed Yes | 22c | 10,256$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,286.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378b…4ce4backed Yes | 3c | 10,012$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 22c | 10,000$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.14 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd5…382cbacked Yes | 3c | 9,991$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.77 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…de9abacked Yes | 9c | 9,347$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.84 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 5c | 9,300$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…92fbbacked Yes | 43c | 9,260$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 12c | 9,218$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.91 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac12…7f97backed Yes | 1c | 9,167$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…ea8dbacked Yes | 12c | 9,095$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…0838backed Yes | 11c | 9,077$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b4…827fbacked Yes | 14c | 8,260$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4848…9064backed Yes | 5c | 8,249$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…afa6backed Yes | 46c | 8,223$3,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,776.34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 8,064$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.69 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…09fdbacked Yes | 25c | 8,049$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed Yes | 12c | 7,974$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.89 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…bc25backed Yes | 1c | 7,882$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Yes | 26c | 7,818$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.29 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…0478backed Yes | 17c | 7,815$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b2…affabacked Yes | 22c | 7,538$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 44c | 7,406$3,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,269.34 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde96…ca88backed Yes | 15c | 7,021$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked No | 78c | 7,000$5,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…dee4backed Yes | 32c | 6,683$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 13c | 6,050$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 75c | 5,926$4,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.88 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7b…413abacked Yes | 23c | 5,910$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.57 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes | 44c | 5,888$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570.25 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…56d9backed Yes | 43c | 5,852$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1efc…4fc9backed Yes | 17c | 5,839$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 39c | 5,821$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.23 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…8235backed Yes | 41c | 5,766$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,388.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,573$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 77c | 5,536$4,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.38 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…2a0dbacked Yes | 13c | 5,508$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.07 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 3c | 5,484$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…0d34backed Yes | 42c | 5,469$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…a5fbbacked Yes | 22c | 5,377$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 40c | 5,375$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.09 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 30c | 5,359$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.2 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ec…d1dcbacked Yes | 46c | 5,229$2,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…a88abacked Yes | 17c | 5,193$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 75c | 4,987$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -9.8wins | -0.32per pick | 67cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x77c1…e407backed Yes | 30c | 4,922$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.15 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…89b4backed Yes | 41c | 4,818$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a6…588bbacked Yes | 12c | 4,565$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…3da4backed Yes | 31c | 4,563$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…9cebbacked Yes | 35c | 4,494$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48b…92c1backed Yes | 47c | 4,300$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 4,275$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.67 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…a9dcbacked Yes | 7c | 4,220$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 60c | 4,065$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.78 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…deb2backed Yes | 50c | 4,018$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 3c | 4,007$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.98 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 3c | 3,894$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687e…22d4backed Yes | 23c | 3,879$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…271dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,876$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked Yes | 16c | 3,852$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.29 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4120…0d80backed Yes | 42c | 3,844$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.