Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x391e2cca67a2d49030baf239fdebb1d428b732a00d0af46a0c98866a0a8eee8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,455,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,032,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,455,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked No | 78c | 304,605$238,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,425.66 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f08…c6f5backed Yes | 37c | 207,812$77,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,214 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 14c | 193,849$27,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,530.97 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 6c | 161,163$8,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,979.55 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 69c | 125,776$86,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,154.97 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 14c | 122,815$17,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,595.48 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 45c | 102,980$46,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,610.6 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 25c | 98,389$25,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,030.56 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 80c | 87,661$70,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,653.2 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 62c | 69,433$42,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,671.25 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 78c | 69,265$54,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,151.26 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked No | 53c | 65,512$34,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,621.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 64,916$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5531…c763backed Yes | 8c | 59,297$4,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,783.06 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 27c | 48,639$13,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,289.96 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 76c | 45,211$34,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,014.37 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 13c | 43,784$5,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,507.82 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 23c | 41,746$9,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,520.39 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 28c | 39,558$10,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,917.59 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 50c | 38,407$19,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,199.71 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 31c | 36,190$11,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,094.87 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 11c | 35,708$3,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,909.02 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 46c | 34,423$15,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,505.39 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…8955backed Yes | 15c | 32,371$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 74c | 31,873$23,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,320.75 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…15cdbacked No | 52c | 31,857$16,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,422.68 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 43c | 31,425$13,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,043.3 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 61c | 30,234$18,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,799.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…db13backed Yes | 57c | 29,181$16,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,738.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…2044backed Yes | 26c | 27,224$6,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,993.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 59c | 27,222$15,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,275.08 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 48c | 25,908$12,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,525.28 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 25c | 25,793$6,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,336.44 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…847ebacked Yes | 6c | 25,200$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 46c | 24,699$11,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,481 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 77c | 24,577$18,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,760.53 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…5732backed Yes | 35c | 24,480$8,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,472.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5823…673fbacked Yes | 39c | 22,831$8,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,999.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a18…6ffabacked No | 68c | 22,587$15,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,278.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…0838backed Yes | 6c | 22,545$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.13 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…c596backed Yes | 65c | 21,682$14,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,058.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 30c | 21,100$6,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,349 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…7ca4backed Yes | 6c | 21,088$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 57c | 20,894$11,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,897.71 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…d1abbacked Yes | 56c | 20,000$11,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,198.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 29c | 19,234$5,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,493.08 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 37c | 19,190$7,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,004.23 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 33c | 18,919$6,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,216.54 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae1…52b9backed No | 75c | 18,531$13,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,551.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked No | 44c | 17,606$7,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,910.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…10e7backed Yes | 11c | 17,338$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…3804backed Yes | 52c | 17,287$9,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,069.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…f1eebacked Yes | 57c | 17,260$9,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,797.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 37c | 17,024$6,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,283.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…6434backed Yes | 15c | 16,903$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 16,321$5,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,621.04 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cf…13a3backed Yes | 19c | 16,050$3,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,069.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…5d01backed Yes | 25c | 16,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…3607backed Yes | 13c | 15,969$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes | 65c | 15,951$10,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,406.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe22c…f7f1backed Yes | 5c | 15,818$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 16c | 15,251$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385.68 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da9…0afabacked Yes | 10c | 15,168$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a25…24bcbacked Yes | 21c | 15,096$3,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,234.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 60c | 14,589$8,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,823.63 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a0…6d87backed Yes | 34c | 14,481$4,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,874.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 51c | 14,350$7,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,372.36 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Yes | 14c | 14,009$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f30…6b2bbacked Yes | 21c | 13,954$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eeb…cf91backed Yes | 20c | 13,853$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,701.64 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…575ebacked Yes | 6c | 13,843$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -59%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f30…c65abacked Yes | 43c | 13,828$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 46c | 13,645$6,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,296.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…3364backed Yes | 15c | 13,483$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…21cbbacked Yes | 28c | 13,457$3,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,731.56 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 23c | 13,170$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.17 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…fa95backed No | 78c | 13,021$10,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,801.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 70c | 12,774$8,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,801.52 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 79c | 12,489$9,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.23 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 45c | 12,434$5,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,797 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…ff80backed Yes | 8c | 11,375$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…b076backed Yes | 27c | 11,037$3,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,029.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…66a7backed No | 75c | 11,030$8,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,774.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd780…2d02backed Yes | 64c | 10,873$6,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,997.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 32c | 10,596$3,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,377.39 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…f0efbacked No | 49c | 10,250$5,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,179.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 22c | 10,116$2,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271.42 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c1…e407backed Yes | 18c | 10,055$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.27 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…46cabacked Yes | 30c | 10,050$3,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,043.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 24c | 10,013$2,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.73 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 17c | 10,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…36d5backed Yes | 27c | 9,801$2,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,637.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed Yes | 36c | 9,618$3,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,416.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 27c | 9,515$2,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,577.44 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c3…379abacked Yes | 9c | 9,456$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 42c | 9,402$3,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,947.49 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…1a42backed Yes | 40c | 9,288$3,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,723.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa643…d43dbacked Yes | 40c | 9,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…dee4backed Yes | 13c | 8,920$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…6b67backed Yes | 35c | 8,903$3,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,088.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.