Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56aa6775ec903e0012a20a23cda4515d6c1c53dfa6ceb035ae6b428c4c34fcef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,289$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 1c | 11,167$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…21fabacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,262$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,904$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,334$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,192$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,997$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…ca56backed Yes | 1c | 1,791$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,745$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…c139backed Yes | 2c | 1,537$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 1,475$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…eaa1backed Yes | 2c | 1,282$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,207$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,022$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…4ccebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked Yes | 2c | 999.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 1c | 906.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c69…4d4abacked Yes | 2c | 863.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…7014backed Yes | 1c | 844.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 828.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…559ebacked Yes | 2c | 714.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…a7c6backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb08…6b09backed Yes | 2c | 568.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…65eebacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b04…ae4dbacked Yes | 3c | 469.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…d251backed Yes | 5c | 306.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad5…6836backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.