TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x94d4…65ee

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+58.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+187.7%+$134.41
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$116
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.7
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$128
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+1,786.8%+$378.8
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+177.8%+$888.89
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+92.3%+$480
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$613Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+244.2%+$1,496.36
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+62%+$102.73
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+248.2%+$445.42
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$450
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$127.86
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12.48
All 23 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-22.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$2,200
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$466.67
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
All 15 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+114.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$794Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$794.45
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,290Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+112.8%+$1,454.85
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+956%+$706.59
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+614.3%+$974.77
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$254.03
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+62.1%+$108.97
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$180
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$68.94
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$102
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick23cpaid+144.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$994Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+155.7%+$1,547.38
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+377.1%+$988
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$325
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$19.43
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.