TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$280,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$257,268

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,073 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf257…1950backed Yes0c6,970$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x767b…cebbbacked Yes9c3,761$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes11c3,579$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.132010%2 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ea…0b53backed Yes12c3,305$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.041060%6 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+152.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x73b0…1bb5backed Yes7c3,292$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d83…f54cbacked Yes7c3,248$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5544…c1cabacked Yes10c3,027$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd6…d9ecbacked Yes10c2,991$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe222…b4cbbacked Yes14c2,906$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.114332.6%14 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd188…0116backed Yes7c2,688$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2465…433ebacked Yes9c2,527$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914d…b0fabacked Yes9c2,487$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1fc…2adbbacked Yes10c2,389$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3380…0338backed Yes7c2,353$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…448cbacked Yes10c2,195$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f7…10bdbacked Yes8c2,134$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee55…7f3cbacked Yes9c2,072$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7239…d757backed Yes10c1,997$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dbf…654dbacked Yes9c1,838$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4df…91acbacked Yes10c1,692$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d4…65eebacked Yes13c1,570$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes9c1,541$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.395125.5%13 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes11c1,541$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010743%46 W · 61 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,524$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.661,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c1,517$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4926413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b5…0939backed Yes10c1,458$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes8c1,293$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.366710.4%7 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-58.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1010…7818backed Yes10c1,283$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe437…98dcbacked Yes10c1,217$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72bb…5926backed Yes7c1,215$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd2…02dabacked Yes7c1,195$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f3…a0c5backed Yes9c1,189$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7822…fe85backed Yes7c1,177$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes10c1,174$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.047439.2%29 W · 45 L+12.3wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+131.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2ce5…6c16backed Yes9c1,122$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes10c1,075$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9315556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ba…dce0backed Yes9c1,075$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c1,069$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.142934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes10c1,063$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1813858%80 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb7f…2a14backed Yes9c1,059$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b6…0d78backed Yes7c1,047$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6552…d8efbacked Yes9c1,038$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f0e…b47ebacked Yes9c1,037$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9beb…4ed6backed Yes7c1,022$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee1c…b68ebacked Yes9c995$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b5…821fbacked Yes9c980$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6371…1523backed Yes12c947.35$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c3…7f0bbacked Yes12c945.7$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c2…1f7abacked Yes9c937$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b3…7774backed Yes10c933$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa29d…1061backed Yes9c885$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f71…c48abacked Yes7c857$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c72…1680backed Yes7c854$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89cb…0574backed Yes7c843$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeceb…011ebacked Yes8c822$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…0072backed Yes10c821$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xded9…26b6backed Yes10c814$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e87…c633backed Yes8c812$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf29…bd92backed Yes13c799.76$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c46…ce39backed Yes7c767$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4726…69d2backed Yes9c763$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b22…68e3backed Yes9c732.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.532437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes10c729.64$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.285223.1%12 W · 40 L-10.1wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-55%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3449…b944backed Yes14c728.65$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.51450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x923e…ab45backed Yes5c722.48$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3970%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ef…e185backed Yes7c722$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc364…bdb9backed Yes7c710$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f54…adfebacked Yes6c697.8$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.11030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-54.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bed…8608backed Yes10c640$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d1…7d27backed Yes9c638.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd9a…07acbacked Yes10c634$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f6…e558backed Yes9c632$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes4c630.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2813131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4759…ec88backed Yes11c619.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f2…f61dbacked Yes10c580$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes9c578.61$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3111615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04f4…a19cbacked Yes10c573$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b3…9917backed Yes10c568$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc396…91c0backed Yes9c566$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9add…f7e1backed Yes9c562$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x943a…69fabacked Yes9c533$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…4763backed Yes8c520$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.361612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid+191.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…333ebacked Yes11c507.86$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes11c505.69$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.591118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x348e…5196backed Yes9c504$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510a…df54backed Yes7c502$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes12c500.75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.147860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5b8…c667backed Yes10c496$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes12c479.72$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.052941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b83…8ec0backed Yes10c464$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ac…78ecbacked Yes9c443$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeec…a303backed Yes10c408.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-78.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac13…6506backed Yes11c371.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403815.8%6 W · 32 L-7.1wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-54.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes11c333.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.132817.9%5 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-62.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bd3…1c90backed Yes11c325.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bb8…a7edbacked Yes8c319.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.351315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes9c308.69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.84818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb288…0c44backed Yes9c304.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes9c301.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.16041.7%25 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+161.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc6be…43c9backed Yes7c300.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.