TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,101
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,826

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,101 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes14c2,503$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.722832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c2,408$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.575125.5%13 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbba7…139cbacked Yes25c2,273$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.1950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes18c2,260$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.385429.6%16 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c2,172$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes20c1,871$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.886710.4%7 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-58.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9706…8613backed Yes7c1,555$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7390%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes25c1,509$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.7312538.4%48 W · 77 L+11.5wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes23c1,390$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.346848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed Yes9c1,356$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.731711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…333ebacked Yes13c1,188$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1572213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No75c1,040$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26015556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes21c915.04$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5535334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde7d…62b2backed Yes23c820$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.052759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes14c713.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes21c700$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.52941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae70…abfbbacked Yes13c600$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.772828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb10e…6259backed Yes16c600$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d7…fdbfbacked Yes19c546.11$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.181643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…4763backed Yes15c542.32$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.861612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid+191.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes25c515.4$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.987860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No79c502.99$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.754163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4505…1cf0backed Yes12c474$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…0c23backed Yes37c453.92$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+66.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes15c436.14$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3429436.1%106 W · 188 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No72c434.81$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.0430238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes13c425.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1519923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes18c420$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.717935.4%28 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes24c389.16$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.146041.7%25 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+161.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7cb…9fd7backed Yes5c360.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes16c360.73$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.252733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb085…36a1backed Yes15c343.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+132.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe168…f375backed Yes30c328.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c323.4$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.551,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes13c321.22$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.763748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeec…a303backed Yes21c313.31$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-78.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes18c301.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.514420.5%9 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7be6…e1f9backed Yes32c272.03$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafbc…18c6backed Yes16c257.49$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.21812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid+114.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes28c250.4$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.11922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes12c240$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.84818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf6…2e3fbacked Yes11c240$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.29922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes13c228.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.177439.2%29 W · 45 L+12.3wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+131.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No63c220.64$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.133100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+144.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes5c215.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.795728.1%16 W · 41 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a3…9e97backed Yes19c215$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.92420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes18c210.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.762250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes15c210$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.531987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34fb…6516backed Yes11c207.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc7…f5f4backed Yes21c200.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8772…e179backed Yes9c190.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20a3…29dbbacked No77c188.41$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.361776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+46.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb3c…833ebacked Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d4…81ddbacked Yes29c175.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x943f…92a3backed Yes11c175$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x939f…292ebacked Yes22c169.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.26771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a10…94bcbacked Yes9c168.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-46.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0676…3b27backed Yes17c160.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No80c159$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.814429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7b0…203bbacked Yes12c146.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x115b…68efbacked Yes18c140.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid+99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe222…b4cbbacked Yes33c140.29$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.964332.6%14 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2be0…68adbacked Yes26c140$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3650%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes16c130.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.17921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8806…6c52backed Yes18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf44a…cff6backed Yes27c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes9c113.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.614717%8 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes15c106.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7616050.6%81 W · 79 L+13.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes18c104$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02c7…7650backed No78c102.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe102…71dfbacked No78c102.63$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.58850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c101.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.821,05134.7%365 W · 686 L-93.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xccec…fd3bbacked Yes18c100.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe40…90cabacked No78c96.73$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes20c95.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.512250%11 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes19c95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No71c83.26$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.144856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No70c83$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5716276.5%124 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc6…1e0abacked Yes16c81.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.33per pick45cpaid+61.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes14c78.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.025715.8%9 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick19cpaid+3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x465a…d8d4backed Yes33c74.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No69c74.16$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.993718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed Yes18c73.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.071631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+80.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked Yes17c73.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-92.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No75c72$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes20c71.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.078353%44 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ab…614bbacked Yes28c70.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes15c69.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.571729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+132.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75a4…166bbacked Yes16c66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad7…4f32backed Yes31c64.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c62.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4530718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked Yes18c60.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.681533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes23c60.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.585724.6%14 W · 43 L-8.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-36.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed Yes30c53.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0917752%92 W · 85 L+20.4wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No79c51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7113131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2762…2cf6backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168939.3%35 W · 54 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.