Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e75c47528185caa0b8140d5199a505b111d535d004f10c14c77099e160f8c43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 14c | 2,503$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.72 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 2,408$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.57 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…139cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,273$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,260$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.38 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,172$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,871$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.88 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…8613backed Yes | 7c | 1,555$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,509$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.73 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 23c | 1,390$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.34 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…9c11backed Yes | 9c | 1,356$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,188$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 75c | 1,040$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 915.04$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…62b2backed Yes | 23c | 820$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.05 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 14c | 713.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes | 21c | 700$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked Yes | 13c | 600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…6259backed Yes | 16c | 600$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d7…fdbfbacked Yes | 19c | 546.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…4763backed Yes | 15c | 542.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 25c | 515.4$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.98 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 502.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4505…1cf0backed Yes | 12c | 474$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…0c23backed Yes | 37c | 453.92$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 15c | 436.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 72c | 434.81$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 13c | 425.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 420$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 24c | 389.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…9fd7backed Yes | 5c | 360.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 16c | 360.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…36a1backed Yes | 15c | 343.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 30c | 328.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 323.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 13c | 321.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…a303backed Yes | 21c | 313.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 18c | 301.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…e1f9backed Yes | 32c | 272.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 16c | 257.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes | 28c | 250.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 12c | 240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf6…2e3fbacked Yes | 11c | 240$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 13c | 228.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 63c | 220.64$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 5c | 215.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 19c | 215$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 18c | 210.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 210$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fb…6516backed Yes | 11c | 207.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc7…f5f4backed Yes | 21c | 200.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…e179backed Yes | 9c | 190.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 77c | 188.41$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…833ebacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…81ddbacked Yes | 29c | 175.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…92a3backed Yes | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…292ebacked Yes | 22c | 169.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…94bcbacked Yes | 9c | 168.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed Yes | 17c | 160.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 80c | 159$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…203bbacked Yes | 12c | 146.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x115b…68efbacked Yes | 18c | 140.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…b4cbbacked Yes | 33c | 140.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…68adbacked Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 130.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…6c52backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44a…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 9c | 113.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 15c | 106.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 18c | 104$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…7650backed No | 78c | 102.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 78c | 102.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 101.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…fd3bbacked Yes | 18c | 100.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…90cabacked No | 78c | 96.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 20c | 95.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 71c | 83.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…1e0abacked Yes | 16c | 81.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 14c | 78.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…d8d4backed Yes | 33c | 74.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 69c | 74.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 18c | 73.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 17c | 73.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 20c | 71.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ab…614bbacked Yes | 28c | 70.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 15c | 69.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…166bbacked Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…4f32backed Yes | 31c | 64.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 62.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 18c | 60.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 23c | 60.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 30c | 53.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.