Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbf9e226512452452438571385c111fafd7a581f227d997183b3c0ed0aaa6e94

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $85,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,700 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Commodities
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbba7…139cbacked Yes	19c	3,608$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.93	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	16c	3,186$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.61	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	22cpaid	+76.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes	1c	2,965$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.13	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+123.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes	21c	2,779$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.05	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-58.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3716…238cbacked Yes	4c	2,540$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.65	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	1,872$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.08	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes	1c	1,651$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	75	2.7%2 W · 73 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	17c	1,438$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.63	67	10.4%7 W · 60 L	-7.1wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb3c…833ebacked Yes	22c	1,421$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-55%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab5…f570backed Yes	12c	1,409$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.68	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-5.8wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-70%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed Yes	11c	1,099$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.06	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-79%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a10…94bcbacked Yes	1c	977.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…4763backed Yes	19c	954.73$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.82	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	+191.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes	15c	943.41$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	17c	900.39$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.76	264	13.3%35 W · 229 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	12c	895.27$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.53	78	60.3%47 W · 31 L	+7.6wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56b5…0939backed Yes	17c	883.67$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked Yes	13c	746.16$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.55	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes	21c	730.5$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.26	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-10.1wins	-0.19per pick	42cpaid	-55%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb357…199bbacked Yes	18c	670.95$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.16per pick	23cpaid	-84.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes	16c	611.38$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.9	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes	6c	467$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.02	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…333ebacked Yes	14c	436.01$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	7c	432.25$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.12	97	9.3%9 W · 88 L	-6.3wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes	17c	420.03$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.42	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	16c	403.34$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.59	1,030	9.2%95 W · 935 L	-25.0wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10e…6259backed Yes	15c	400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.72	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes	13c	388.76$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.82	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+4.1wins	+0.16per pick	30cpaid	+45.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1bb8…a7edbacked Yes	13c	385$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe222…b4cbbacked Yes	17c	384.49$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.52	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-6.1wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0bf6…2e3fbacked Yes	12c	382.08$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.97	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes	18c	363.84$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.53	54	29.6%16 W · 38 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+73%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes	17c	361.47$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	107	43%46 W · 61 L	-8.2wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe168…f375backed Yes	15c	342.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-56%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b0…dd47backed Yes	15c	330.1$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.66	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	12c	306.15$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.36	131	31.3%41 W · 90 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No	79c	300$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8d9…0e2ebacked No	79c	299.99$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.8	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes	15c	299.4$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.65	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeec…a303backed Yes	17c	297.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	24cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafbc…18c6backed Yes	16c	257.49$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.88	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+114.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes	5c	254.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	75	32%24 W · 51 L	-11.1wins	-0.15per pick	47cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	19c	247$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.93	116	15.5%18 W · 98 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	13c	239.55$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.89	195	35.4%69 W · 126 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes	5c	210$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	57	28.1%16 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	18c	206.48$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.55	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes	17c	205.54$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.61	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked Yes	17c	203.88$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.9	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-92.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b5c…c056backed Yes	17c	200.02$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.03	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+7.5wins	+0.19per pick	32cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7fc6…7306backed Yes	18c	200$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.6	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc7…f5f4backed Yes	16c	200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.79	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes	22c	199.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes	17c	186.31$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.07	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+37.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9701…fab8backed Yes	16c	183.41$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+2.4wins	+0.30per pick	58cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87d7…fdbfbacked Yes	19c	181.69$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.19	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fb…6516backed Yes	13c	169.23$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked Yes	16c	158.22$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.96	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-87.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7db…6688backed Yes	13c	155.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.58	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.9wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes	14c	152.19$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.43	57	31.6%18 W · 39 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00ad…01dcbacked Yes	16c	150$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	14c	146.62$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	74	39.2%29 W · 45 L	+12.3wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+131.5%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes	17c	143.47$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb085…36a1backed Yes	14c	141.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+132.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed Yes	16c	129.87$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.18	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-85%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea8d…bf76backed Yes	24c	113.12$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd395…693abacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe501…7344backed Yes	24c	109.6$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c8…dc44backed Yes	23c	109.13$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-74.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x296a…a891backed Yes	19c	103.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.3	50	50%25 W · 25 L	+5.3wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9618…0265backed Yes	21c	98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b0d…9501backed Yes	14c	96.29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes	14c	95.85$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+6.2wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2611…62c7backed Yes	16c	95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01dc…3f07backed Yes	17c	90.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dff…4f9dbacked Yes	13c	90.03$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes	15c	88.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	21c	86.61$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	307	18.6%57 W · 250 L	-17.8wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-34%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes	18c	76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	60	41.7%25 W · 35 L	+7.6wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+161.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed Yes	16c	74.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+80.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked Yes	16c	71.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.49	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+83.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20a3…29dbbacked No	77c	71.03$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.05	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+3.4wins	+0.20per pick	57cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbc6…1e0abacked Yes	16c	70.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.9wins	+0.33per pick	45cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e8d…2814backed Yes	30c	70.02$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes	21c	61$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-3.7wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-84.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x465a…d8d4backed Yes	18c	58.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…798ebacked Yes	22c	53.48$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f09…f1c3backed No	78c	50.33$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.07	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+132.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No	78c	46.17$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.36	17	82.4%14 W · 3 L	+2.8wins	+0.16per pick	66cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No	76c	20.83$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?this page
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?Yes won
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?No won
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?No won
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?No won
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?No won
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?No won
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event