Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b87791e06388b1a91fd402c29e483842da0f9fec156bb3cefe9d58275a0373b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd69…e123backed Yes | 12c | 3,229$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,842.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 2,436$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.42 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,213$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.04 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…bd51backed No | 67c | 2,203$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.15 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 2,185$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.11 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,677$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.63 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed Yes | 12c | 1,493$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.77 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,256$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.58 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…36a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,179$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,066$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.71 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 900$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.4 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 894.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.69 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71da…1571backed Yes | 6c | 715.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,489.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 12c | 687.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.68 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 681.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.38 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 18c | 649.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.21 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 6c | 635.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed Yes | 16c | 627.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 10c | 596.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.19 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 7c | 581.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.68 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 24c | 520.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.08 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 449.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.25 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 8c | 446.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.5 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 45c | 446.43$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b9…552dbacked Yes | 9c | 439.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +554.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 30c | 434.22$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Yes | 15c | 390$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 342.2$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 55c | 338.69$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 47c | 321.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.65 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 313.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.35 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 3c | 307.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.35 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 4c | 303.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.55 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x115b…68efbacked Yes | 8c | 299.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 5c | 295.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +443.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 45c | 294.01$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.82 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -10.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 289$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.05 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 44c | 275.3$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6e…4bc0backed Yes | 5c | 260$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +856.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 6c | 257.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 242.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 236.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…5294backed Yes | 9c | 233.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +466.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 48c | 232.35$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 232.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.75 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…c11abacked Yes | 24c | 225.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.75 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 15c | 220.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 22c | 219.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.91 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 215$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 20c | 215$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.6 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…4763backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 36c | 197.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes | 9c | 194.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 192.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 27c | 187$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 185.36$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 12c | 184$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.74 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 21c | 176.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 171.75$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 55c | 167$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3039backed Yes | 13c | 158.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…18eebacked Yes | 20c | 137.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.48per pick | 14cpaid | +456.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 136$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked Yes | 8c | 125.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +319.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd85…ec48backed Yes | 54c | 121.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a03ebacked Yes | 44c | 110.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked No | 14c | 106.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 13c | 106.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…f190backed Yes | 15c | 101.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +268.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe61f…17d8backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c87…48e7backed Yes | 20c | 97.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +387.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…dfdabacked Yes | 25c | 93.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 45c | 88.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 14c | 87.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 14c | 85.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 13c | 85.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed Yes | 77c | 82.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499d…65ecbacked Yes | 32c | 78.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…7f40backed Yes | 43c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 64.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 64.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Yes | 44c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 57.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca50…7691backed Yes | 44c | 56.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…0ca7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 54c | 45.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 74c | 34.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.