TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$348,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$258,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c42,218$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.22230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x340c…1007backed Yes0c41,554$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c13,443$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1963…5beabacked Yes9c9,963$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.29100%0 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes5c7,109$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.5684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc294…9869backed Yes29c6,025$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.2570%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No75c4,572$3,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.6230238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes9c4,200$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.012010%2 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b3…28a1backed Yes4c3,972$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.73425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02d1…7d27backed Yes23c3,719$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.93100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c3,336$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.65125.5%13 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7295…a044backed Yes20c2,959$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d4…65eebacked Yes28c2,905$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a85…6b68backed Yes23c2,586$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc6…7306backed Yes2c2,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603713.5%5 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c2,427$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.712934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9beb…4ed6backed Yes7c2,349$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc504…8728backed Yes7c2,207$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes17c2,041$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.297131%22 W · 49 L-10.0wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-46.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No79c2,030$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.8683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeceb…011ebacked Yes7c1,975$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89cb…0574backed Yes7c1,969$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…45a0backed Yes7c1,943$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c46…ce39backed Yes7c1,897$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e87…c633backed Yes7c1,852$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes20c1,761$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2132023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,758$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.141,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4396…f0e1backed Yes28c1,740$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes25c1,730$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.82240%0 W · 24 L-6.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc364…bdb9backed Yes7c1,669$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes18c1,630$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.6326413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b6…3961backed Yes27c1,595$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.1944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No73c1,536$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.554163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x431d…b7a6backed No69c1,494$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f33…9eebbacked Yes24c1,478$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35770%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bb…2b4dbacked Yes20c1,450$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes19c1,430$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.86714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-81.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No76c1,342$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.863661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d83…f54cbacked Yes7c1,200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes21c1,194$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.267439.2%29 W · 45 L+12.3wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+131.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa740…1b55backed Yes9c1,167$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes20c1,151$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.181118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ade…0402backed Yes7c1,114$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf8…f4a2backed Yes7c1,075$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf34d…e864backed Yes7c1,028$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes12c994$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5911615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56b5…0939backed Yes15c974.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No72c942.91$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.363781.1%30 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes23c920.75$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.775018%9 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf734…dcbdbacked Yes7c881$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cce…7ac6backed Yes7c877$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bb…23e4backed Yes7c863$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes20c858.84$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17310743%46 W · 61 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73b0…1bb5backed Yes7c844$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a0…02c7backed Yes7c826$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No79c812.8$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.43164.5%20 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38cf…c713backed No56c799.91$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64cd…4294backed Yes7c772$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb264…cf1abacked Yes7c768$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes19c750.69$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.345223.1%12 W · 40 L-10.1wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-55%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb3f0…d2a1backed No80c736.94$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.21771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick76cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec4…cfc8backed No59c716.73$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.893378.8%26 W · 7 L+5.3wins+0.16per pick63cpaid+17.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe070…769fbacked Yes10c705.08$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.43475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3896…ece6backed Yes9c700$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9220…9b14backed Yes8c696$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d85…2e6dbacked Yes8c669$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No75c655.38$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.934856.3%27 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc790…126abacked Yes8c651$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2c…bd51backed No70c640.21$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.214360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5b6…8637backed Yes8c615$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48a1…b9e9backed Yes7c615$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf288…590fbacked Yes7c599$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes7c582.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4721228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b22…68e3backed Yes20c554.27$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.532437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes18c546.97$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.453748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes13c538.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.361540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes7c530.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.771884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40c…f607backed Yes14c526.88$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x358c…123bbacked Yes8c519$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes18c505.31$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.666710.4%7 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-58.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No71c503.8$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.131145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid+186%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8d9…0e2ebacked No78c500$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3196…3e8ebacked Yes27c486.16$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.792524%6 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No80c479.84$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.335100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+98.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ba4…6fc4backed Yes23c457.47$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.22633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+131.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff7d…a51fbacked Yes8c455$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x681e…5394backed Yes5c442.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf29…bd92backed Yes23c405.14$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.661833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f04…d82ebacked No66c402.04$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.695429.6%16 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.43030%9 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb8…1fe9backed Yes17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.754346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c4…1e6abacked Yes7c395$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes16c378.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6229747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdeec…a303backed Yes37c366.55$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-78.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes5c362.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7913131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…333ebacked Yes17c357.54$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.632213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab5…f570backed Yes10c347$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.813716.2%6 W · 31 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes6c344.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5956.3%6 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x398e…3752backed Yes39c329.49$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb8…a7edbacked Yes12c321.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.951315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.