Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74cda80b2734086fa7e6bfce27d6321bb617d28dde6b486e7d3567c6afa5f46f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 12c | 5,842$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.88 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…b4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 3,490$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.59 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 2c | 2,544$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,215$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,764$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 1,754$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.36 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…65eebacked Yes | 18c | 1,700$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,409$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.77 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…199bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,216$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…0939backed Yes | 14c | 1,100$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 15c | 998.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 838.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 15c | 730.48$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -10.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 14c | 637.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…a303backed Yes | 9c | 569.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 10c | 499.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 15c | 461.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…bd92backed Yes | 18c | 425.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 12c | 423.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 6c | 415.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 16c | 375.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 3c | 370.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…0c44backed Yes | 14c | 331.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 7c | 327.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923e…ab45backed Yes | 10c | 326$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb8…a7edbacked Yes | 9c | 320.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…4763backed Yes | 16c | 320$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…68e3backed Yes | 13c | 308.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…9c11backed Yes | 11c | 297$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 9c | 291.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…0265backed Yes | 12c | 282.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 11c | 278.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 12c | 264.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked Yes | 13c | 257.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 16c | 257.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 11c | 228.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 14c | 226.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 9c | 224.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1565…3a47backed Yes | 16c | 219.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 14c | 216.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes | 7c | 211.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…7aabbacked Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 9c | 207.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 206.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…f570backed Yes | 10c | 204.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…6d86backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 187.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…fdabbacked Yes | 8c | 184.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 14c | 176.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 170.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…dc44backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe501…7344backed Yes | 16c | 161.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 154.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5c…c056backed Yes | 15c | 152.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2dff…4f9dbacked Yes | 10c | 149.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…36a1backed Yes | 14c | 141.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 14c | 132.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a8…997bbacked Yes | 14c | 127.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…bf5cbacked Yes | 12c | 126.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 14c | 124.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1adf…0376backed Yes | 10c | 123.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184c…1c26backed Yes | 11c | 123.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 14c | 117.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 17c | 101.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…9c18backed Yes | 15c | 100.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 11c | 96.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 80c | 87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…166bbacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.