TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes12c2,749$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.15429.6%16 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff9b…0245backed Yes23c2,171$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c2,097$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.85125.5%13 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes17c1,914$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.435334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b24…2440backed Yes12c1,909$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes14c1,325$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.486710.4%7 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-58.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c1,251$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.641,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes13c1,081$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9726413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes13c1,050$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.441118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes41c1,048$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.126848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes13c909.51$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7730238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb10e…6259backed Yes10c894.75$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.531723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da9…d940backed Yes20c820$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick28cpaid+106.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb085…36a1backed Yes7c803.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+132.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes33c754.15$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.444420.5%9 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes18c640$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.67935.4%28 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes8c637.01$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0511615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes45c624.76$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.751855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes11c600.52$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.422832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54df…ce90backed Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcc70…d51fbacked Yes17c595.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes25c510.51$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.312538.4%48 W · 77 L+11.5wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x943f…92a3backed Yes11c508.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…333ebacked Yes10c502.41$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Yes45c498.81$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.661855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes9c474.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.014856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes13c448.83$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.971729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+132.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes11c443.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.347439.2%29 W · 45 L+12.3wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+131.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked No68c422.41$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.492646.2%12 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+45.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfda…ad34backed Yes5c408.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes52c386.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c368.59$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.623846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4759…ec88backed Yes11c352.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27d…fa96backed Yes61c326.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes47c317.99$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.453063.3%19 W · 11 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+41.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes35c311.94$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.620624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c306$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.054553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9706…8613backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed Yes7c294.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.411711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes46c294.79$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.335223.1%12 W · 40 L-10.1wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-55%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No60c287.76$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5621228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b5c…c056backed Yes11c266.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.173951.3%20 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+51.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xafbc…18c6backed Yes13c257.49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.21812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid+114.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes16c250.51$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.191987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb96…65d7backed Yes48c246.88$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e34…8314backed Yes42c232.94$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ab…c267backed Yes49c224$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes17c223$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.983250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No72c219.79$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+144.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes12c217.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.783119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c215$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.542955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a3…9e97backed Yes46c215$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.72420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8658…0d47backed Yes14c214.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87d7…fdbfbacked Yes19c212.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d4…81ddbacked Yes25c203.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.16041.7%25 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+161.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5dc7…f5f4backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9618…0265backed Yes9c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes15c194$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.862425%6 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc7…6176backed Yes10c179.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.982339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eef…2974backed Yes13c176.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No64c175.66$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.831154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No61c165$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.742653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90b5…4e3dbacked Yes13c158.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x115b…68efbacked Yes13c157.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid+99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a78…7deabacked No64c152.61$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes8c152.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.38147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f54…adfebacked No76c150$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-54.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes10c148.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.183748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9761…ed2bbacked Yes14c143.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Yes45c142.77$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.578643%37 W · 49 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed No63c133.73$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.992250%11 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No61c130.71$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.592544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a86…5448backed Yes17c130$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked Yes45c129.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.651233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x77da…2fd2backed Yes15c121.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.751643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-36.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes15c119.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.392920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick25cpaid+26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x499d…65ecbacked Yes20c118.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.05728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+56%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes10c117.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.312114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebd…1b73backed Yes45c96.44$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes21c94.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202817.9%5 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-62.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc307…8a38backed Yes17c89.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2718…a46cbacked Yes29c87.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7311…2e0cbacked Yes13c80$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes19c78.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.14728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7216050.6%81 W · 79 L+13.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes27c75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6223323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3088…2391backed Yes45c73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.851136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No53c72.87$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9818540.5%75 W · 110 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x657d…7fc5backed Yes18c67.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5db…9e01backed Yes44c67.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No54c64.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.162653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No55c64.07$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.891241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9780…445fbacked Yes26c57.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes18c56.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.281,28624.2%311 W · 975 L-58.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked Yes49c55.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.222171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+40.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x683b…c863backed No55c54.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa36b…f273backed Yes44c54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.76540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No44c52.87$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.42944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x856d…aa02backed Yes39c51.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.