TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,051,609
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,065,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,051,609 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 933 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes58c39,189$22,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,925.034156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes76c23,051$17,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,5194650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb83…8f26backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes62c19,325$12,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,035.027462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed No24c18,584$4,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,139.68837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed No54c17,138$9,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,929.121833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0666…9f1bbacked No33c17,043$5,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,473.31728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed No32c15,053$4,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,189.3512634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked No30c14,854$4,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,395.4110435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes57c13,486$7,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,627.829154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked No32c12,710$4,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,639.752821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes59c12,046$7,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,151.714129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x095d…52cfbacked Yes73c11,276$8,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,231.872924.1%7 W · 22 L-10.4wins-0.36per pick60cpaid-64.6%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed No79c11,097$8,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.522020%4 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-70.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd9c…e0b2backed No35c10,477$3,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,769.722015%3 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cd7…7061backed No63c9,700$6,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,553.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No33c9,415$3,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,293.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No40c8,416$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,05612038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd2…0bd8backed Yes69c7,759$5,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,390.792931%9 W · 20 L-7.7wins-0.26per pick57cpaid-43.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x87fe…875bbacked Yes5c7,448$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.83423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+158.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed No22c7,015$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,439.65525.5%14 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-33.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x388a…e87cbacked Yes54c7,000$3,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,789.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-64.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No32c6,233$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,217.0828427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes60c6,034$3,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,644.6751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd747…8667backed No68c5,954$4,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.911154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes78c5,933$4,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,602.246045%27 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa75…a864backed Yes77c5,922$4,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,582.563580%28 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes76c5,847$4,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,451.087558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No78c5,755$4,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.5811537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked No21c5,703$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,502.643764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+98.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes60c5,682$3,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.173351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked No31c5,539$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,797.183828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a2…6200backed Yes64c5,396$3,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,442616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid+27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes65c5,209$3,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,401.463743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.9835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7b…a3aebacked Yes2c5,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes74c5,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.992642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No31c4,846$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,343.684531.1%14 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes4c4,703$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes62c4,610$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,838.414032.5%13 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No42c4,544$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,616.175545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes27c4,520$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.6713617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked No34c4,510$1,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,974.924436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed02…85f7backed No45c4,464$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,463.991330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f34…c4f8backed Yes2c4,404$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.74633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3425…5698backed No40c4,314$1,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,596.141428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+175.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x731b…90dfbacked No33c4,311$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,882.791353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03d1…ffaabacked No30c4,279$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,012.83655.6%20 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+15.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No41c4,096$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,425.443043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked No31c4,057$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,787.8712343.9%54 W · 69 L+15.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf1fb…0255backed No54c3,784$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x728b…fd3ebacked No25c3,730$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,783.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+159.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed No41c3,710$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200.33234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa2…f43dbacked Yes73c3,678$2,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.6wins-0.51per pick66cpaid-81%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2d1d…9cb4backed Yes26c3,513$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.881241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick62cpaid-41.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5a6…67a1backed Yes72c3,468$2,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,512.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick63cpaid-58.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7cbc…06fbbacked No39c3,100$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.03425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes74c3,092$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3004540%18 W · 27 L-10.5wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-38.7%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c3,067$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.912438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes52c3,012$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.926462.5%40 W · 24 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes2c3,011$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.229535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked No41c3,006$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.611741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc484…4cd5backed No71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8701838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes3c2,958$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3626619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e1e…bb8cbacked No42c2,947$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+133.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5a91backed No34c2,935$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.21812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-63.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No33c2,911$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.7719531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes63c2,785$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.2411545.2%52 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x135d…9019backed No32c2,688$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes4c2,651$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.029532.6%31 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No48c2,644$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.0535652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed No39c2,613$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.672433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed No31c2,599$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.868739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d7…e8babacked No22c2,581$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010.511060%6 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+168.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x244c…1028backed No40c2,541$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.851145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27a…4cdebacked Yes79c2,532$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick78cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No26c2,500$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.9845843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes63c2,443$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.9631649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes3c2,438$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7811329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ee…da09backed No21c2,407$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,895.967636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed Yes68c2,390$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.441030%3 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick57cpaid-58.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes45c2,266$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.584769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3847…df89backed No29c2,240$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,595.73333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d51dbacked Yes8c2,232$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.464717%8 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf66b…b1d1backed No30c2,214$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.645733.3%19 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f76…1d92backed Yes43c2,200$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.042055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes8c2,190$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.124928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed No77c2,148$1,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.616726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes1c2,102$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9913918.7%26 W · 113 L-13.9wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012744.9%57 W · 70 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf6f9…0007backed No43c2,000$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1423732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes62c2,000$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.434748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40049023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7661…208abacked Yes55c2,000$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.991442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-40.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed Yes65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.667045.7%32 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed No31c2,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.992766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ec6…0cfebacked No39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.991030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked No50c1,998$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.814337.2%16 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1fc…96bebacked Yes3c1,978$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked No74c1,975$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.0422227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.