Middle East · resolved market
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e1a1094091ba8905a5d11222796cf94d3d6d055076f0088886bd2386e6f88b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,531,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,531,980 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 584 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 7c | 85,030$5,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,842.62 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2f…067bbacked Yes | 5c | 62,833$3,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,232.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes | 0c | 55,355$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 6c | 51,368$2,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,887.61 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed Yes | 3c | 50,000$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.75 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…a8a2backed Yes | 1c | 34,267$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 6c | 31,941$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.8 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 28,190$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.5 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 27,000$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.23 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…fc1dbacked Yes | 8c | 26,252$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…0095backed Yes | 1c | 25,928$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 8c | 24,128$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.3 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x583e…f341backed Yes | 3c | 22,738$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 22,359$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 4c | 20,768$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8339backed Yes | 2c | 20,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 19,827$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.16 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed Yes | 3c | 18,877$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.77 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 6c | 18,280$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.11 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…3b90backed Yes | 3c | 17,836$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.93 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…52a2backed Yes | 9c | 16,184$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 15,918$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380d…e1efbacked Yes | 0c | 15,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7b…413abacked Yes | 5c | 14,983$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.86 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 14,450$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…98b1backed Yes | 17c | 14,351$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c69…f2d9backed Yes | 3c | 14,177$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.87 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes | 7c | 13,956$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 8c | 13,265$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 12,917$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.42 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 5c | 12,749$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 4c | 12,080$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd4…28afbacked Yes | 3c | 11,895$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 4c | 11,828$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.74 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 8c | 11,474$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.58 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 6c | 11,111$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.66 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 4c | 11,075$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.27 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 10,621$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.97 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d1…b1b9backed Yes | 5c | 10,597$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 6c | 10,260$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.8 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a39…6a92backed Yes | 7c | 10,137$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3f…36b6backed Yes | 16c | 9,995$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.19 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 9,778$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.21 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 4c | 9,451$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.05 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cea…727fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,766$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 6c | 8,279$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.57 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,850$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.69 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…cbbbbacked Yes | 16c | 7,356$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 9c | 7,194$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.63 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 7c | 7,063$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 7,056$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.17 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,754$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 10c | 6,596$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.63 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed Yes | 17c | 6,495$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.15 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…cf8ebacked Yes | 9c | 6,164$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…5ad0backed Yes | 2c | 5,818$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…a68dbacked Yes | 18c | 5,549$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 5,541$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.23 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…1c0fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,534$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 8c | 5,519$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.19 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Yes | 7c | 5,479$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff5…60abbacked Yes | 6c | 5,460$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.75 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd900…d6d0backed Yes | 2c | 5,112$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…9406backed Yes | 9c | 5,083$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,876$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.18 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7b…a842backed Yes | 2c | 4,821$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 11c | 4,619$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.72 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…7cb7backed Yes | 5c | 4,518$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…1e71backed Yes | 10c | 4,315$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa041…1e03backed Yes | 4c | 4,270$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…2446backed Yes | 8c | 4,249$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 7c | 4,200$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 10c | 4,200$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 4,198$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.26 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…d852backed Yes | 4c | 4,017$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes | 11c | 4,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce18…4572backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff58…99efbacked Yes | 11c | 3,862$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.1 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a6…8117backed Yes | 13c | 3,793$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…52a2backed Yes | 2c | 3,749$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…c50ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,741$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…ce29backed Yes | 3c | 3,722$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…26d6backed Yes | 6c | 3,623$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 3c | 3,600$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 2c | 3,548$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…47a8backed Yes | 5c | 3,341$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…5e2abacked Yes | 22c | 3,328$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.39 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…f723backed Yes | 14c | 3,187$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 8c | 3,176$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…69c5backed Yes | 7c | 3,141$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.14 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked Yes | 19c | 3,054$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…e9e7backed Yes | 5c | 2,969$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 5c | 2,945$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.57 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,942$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.85 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 35c | 2,914$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.41 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,900$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,892$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b8…1b30backed Yes | 4c | 2,877$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +353.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Vahidi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Motahari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Shariatmadari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Maryam Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Massoud Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Yasrebi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohsen Qomi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes won
- Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mustafa Hijri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Nasir Hosseini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Reza Pirzadeh be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Mahsouli be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Saeed Jalili be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.