TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Reza Pirzadeh be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,231 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c38,936$39 inLost-$38.94310%0 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bda…4974backed Yes0c28,211$28 inLost-$28.21170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c21,000$21 inLost-$213103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes1c20,701$200 inLost-$2006420.3%13 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e2f…067bbacked Yes0c12,780$13 inLost-$12.78825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-60.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf775…f817backed Yes0c12,298$12 inLost-$12.32619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf7…5307backed Yes0c11,317$56 inLost-$56.361612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes0c10,003$10 inLost-$1022627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x170f…095bbacked Yes1c7,216$51 inLost-$512321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick10cpaid+122.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.