Middle East · resolved market

Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd57f4cb25bcaee6da255636650c7acca65fe5e919223d053d29c4cfe5258d1b3

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $154,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,939 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	60,370$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.07	310	3.9%12 W · 298 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	52,296$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.3	31	0%0 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	30,790$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.08	274	2.9%8 W · 266 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bda…4974backed Yes	0c	29,563$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.56	17	0%0 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes	1c	27,993$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf775…f817backed Yes	0c	27,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes	0c	23,742$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	56	30.4%17 W · 39 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	15,901$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.1	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes	1c	15,292$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.99	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-83.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc709…5f3abacked Yes	0c	14,953$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	16	0%0 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f7e…4c71backed Yes	0c	12,208$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes	0c	11,306$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.26	382	47.6%182 W · 200 L	+37.1wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes	0c	11,111$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.33	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	0c	10,360$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	197	6.6%13 W · 184 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76bd…5e34backed Yes	0c	9,878$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes	0c	9,738$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	9,738$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.27	404	33.7%136 W · 268 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee1…d5bfbacked Yes	1c	9,288$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x678d…1943backed Yes	0c	8,991$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf632…0c89backed Yes	0c	8,399$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2106…fa73backed Yes	0c	8,350$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	41	4.9%2 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	0c	7,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes	0c	6,449$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b70…209dbacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b2…0d0abacked Yes	0c	5,841$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f1…6f5cbacked Yes	0c	4,511$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-3.5wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	3,613$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04af…06d7backed Yes	1c	2,936$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+3.3wins	+0.12per pick	35cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb892…ba4cbacked Yes	1c	1,128$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event