TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$797,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $797,078 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7693…8556backed Yes0c98,548$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes1c83,307$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.73702.9%2 W · 68 L-0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-89.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4974…130cbacked Yes1c66,393$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c57,875$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.445071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c54,474$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.413103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d34…8467backed Yes1c47,408$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c35,262$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.52742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843c…cfaebacked Yes1c34,648$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95af…6ba1backed Yes1c24,609$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes1c24,475$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.07254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2544…6221backed Yes1c23,502$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cac…e7fabacked Yes7c21,245$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.65540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c20,306$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.891976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd520…723dbacked Yes1c17,429$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes1c15,021$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.19649.4%6 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x093e…979bbacked Yes1c14,510$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11970%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbcf…8bb4backed Yes1c14,230$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c69…f2d9backed Yes0c13,825$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.651612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-79.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c13,450$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.12721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbad…c86ebacked Yes1c13,402$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.31362.8%1 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-96.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfa3…191bbacked Yes1c13,218$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4111…621bbacked Yes0c12,451$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes1c12,301$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0390%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c12,143$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.937135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5089…f2cabacked Yes1c11,838$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c9,759$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.491,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf681…f265backed Yes1c9,174$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe547…2c55backed Yes2c9,042$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd900…d6d0backed Yes1c8,985$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6331…7a9cbacked Yes0c8,877$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16a…b564backed Yes1c8,446$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.352714.8%4 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x050c…3d57backed Yes2c8,222$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes0c7,939$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51486.3%3 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+132.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfafa…a39fbacked Yes1c7,203$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcb8…da7fbacked Yes1c7,181$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes0c7,130$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.88140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c9…e71cbacked Yes1c6,924$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick3cpaid+305.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…bfa2backed Yes2c6,527$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…f723backed Yes2c6,461$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c6,449$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.043717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1958…90b8backed Yes2c6,284$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…241bbacked Yes1c5,824$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d5e…4077backed Yes1c5,600$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Yes1c4,976$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.05238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceff…076fbacked Yes2c4,902$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e97…d852backed Yes2c4,786$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.491020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14de…2c97backed Yes1c4,714$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb21…6996backed Yes2c4,658$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe69f…0e37backed Yes1c4,571$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes0c4,300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf52…3bdcbacked Yes1c4,270$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes1c4,237$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015922.6%36 W · 123 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b72…ab8fbacked Yes1c4,156$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c4,154$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.994928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c4,060$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c4,058$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.522282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeee…acdfbacked Yes1c4,006$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+58.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa90a…523fbacked Yes1c3,948$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32540%2 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick7cpaid+164.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3a3…3150backed Yes0c3,910$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.26128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-84.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes1c3,777$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505215.4%8 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe042…f206backed Yes1c3,775$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.97156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes1c3,645$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.624712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf44a…4cbdbacked Yes0c3,561$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c8a…f1dcbacked Yes1c3,480$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.980%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes0c3,456$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.375733.3%19 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbe4…ee11backed Yes1c3,416$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-80.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3372…80cebacked Yes1c3,272$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Yes1c3,152$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184010%4 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-75.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe55e…e3c7backed Yes1c3,049$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes1c3,039$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.691995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c2…ddfabacked Yes1c3,022$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c58…1fc0backed Yes1c3,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd815…a05abacked Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x943a…03eebacked Yes0c2,974$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d85…2cf8backed Yes3c2,953$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.46110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed Yes4c2,674$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5979…5258backed Yes1c2,663$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1303…a08bbacked Yes1c2,537$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x495a…45cabacked Yes1c2,503$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce4…79a1backed Yes1c2,328$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a5b…1439backed Yes1c2,301$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.132321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-45.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes1c2,300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9348.8%3 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958f…1962backed Yes1c2,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2580%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd831…351bbacked Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204238.1%16 W · 26 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28ac…a5ecbacked Yes1c2,174$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.67742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ea0…cd32backed Yes1c2,132$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid+20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98c5…606dbacked Yes1c2,121$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.35850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd315…5c9ebacked Yes1c2,083$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ab0…b3b5backed Yes1c2,075$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6833…2011backed Yes2c2,059$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3590%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f11…5b6ebacked Yes1c2,040$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb01b…5fbabacked Yes1c2,038$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee2…045abacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc184…e0f7backed Yes1c1,964$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd4…0695backed Yes1c1,909$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11160%0 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x181f…c2d0backed Yes1c1,869$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f6…0a28backed Yes2c1,855$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+212.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d3c…f2b8backed Yes1c1,805$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-27%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.