Middle East · resolved market
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac2eaa9567aec99d1be6bd9f01e1cea3921c0ea61a620c7a6741a3763446d2b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $797,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $797,078 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7693…8556backed Yes | 0c | 98,548$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 1c | 83,307$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.73 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4974…130cbacked Yes | 1c | 66,393$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 57,875$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.44 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 54,474$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.41 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d34…8467backed Yes | 1c | 47,408$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 35,262$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…cfaebacked Yes | 1c | 34,648$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95af…6ba1backed Yes | 1c | 24,609$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 1c | 24,475$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…6221backed Yes | 1c | 23,502$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cac…e7fabacked Yes | 7c | 21,245$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 20,306$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…723dbacked Yes | 1c | 17,429$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 1c | 15,021$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x093e…979bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,510$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…8bb4backed Yes | 1c | 14,230$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c69…f2d9backed Yes | 0c | 13,825$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 13,450$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…c86ebacked Yes | 1c | 13,402$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -96.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…191bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,218$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4111…621bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,451$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 1c | 12,301$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 12,143$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5089…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 11,838$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,759$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf681…f265backed Yes | 1c | 9,174$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…2c55backed Yes | 2c | 9,042$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd900…d6d0backed Yes | 1c | 8,985$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6331…7a9cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,877$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…b564backed Yes | 1c | 8,446$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050c…3d57backed Yes | 2c | 8,222$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 0c | 7,939$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…a39fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,203$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…da7fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 0c | 7,130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…e71cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,924$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +305.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…bfa2backed Yes | 2c | 6,527$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…f723backed Yes | 2c | 6,461$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 6,449$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…90b8backed Yes | 2c | 6,284$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…241bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,824$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…4077backed Yes | 1c | 5,600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 1c | 4,976$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceff…076fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,902$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…d852backed Yes | 2c | 4,786$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14de…2c97backed Yes | 1c | 4,714$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb21…6996backed Yes | 2c | 4,658$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe69f…0e37backed Yes | 1c | 4,571$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes | 0c | 4,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…3bdcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,270$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 1c | 4,237$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…ab8fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 4,154$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,060$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,058$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…acdfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,006$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…523fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,948$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a3…3150backed Yes | 0c | 3,910$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,777$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe042…f206backed Yes | 1c | 3,775$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 3,645$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44a…4cbdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,561$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…f1dcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,480$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 0c | 3,456$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe4…ee11backed Yes | 1c | 3,416$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…80cebacked Yes | 1c | 3,272$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 1c | 3,152$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe55e…e3c7backed Yes | 1c | 3,049$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 3,039$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ddfabacked Yes | 1c | 3,022$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…1fc0backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd815…a05abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…03eebacked Yes | 0c | 2,974$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…2cf8backed Yes | 3c | 2,953$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Yes | 4c | 2,674$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…5258backed Yes | 1c | 2,663$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1303…a08bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,537$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495a…45cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,503$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…79a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,328$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…1439backed Yes | 1c | 2,301$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…1962backed Yes | 1c | 2,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd831…351bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ac…a5ecbacked Yes | 1c | 2,174$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea0…cd32backed Yes | 1c | 2,132$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c5…606dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,121$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd315…5c9ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,083$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…b3b5backed Yes | 1c | 2,075$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…2011backed Yes | 2c | 2,059$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f11…5b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,040$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…5fbabacked Yes | 1c | 2,038$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…045abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc184…e0f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,964$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…0695backed Yes | 1c | 1,909$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x181f…c2d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,869$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f6…0a28backed Yes | 2c | 1,855$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +212.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…f2b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,805$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -27%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Vahidi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Motahari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Shariatmadari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Maryam Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Massoud Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Yasrebi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohsen Qomi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes won
- Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mustafa Hijri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Nasir Hosseini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Reza Pirzadeh be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Mahsouli be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Saeed Jalili be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?No won
- Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.