Middle East · resolved market

Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e46dbd75e292e6e3fd25070ddae511f4e495d73fe9c57a12d1a0280e1dc17b7

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $561,072

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $561,072 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes	10c	74,592$7,424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,423.6	148	21.6%32 W · 116 L	-24.5wins	-0.17per pick	38cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes	6c	38,151$2,441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,440.81	73	30.1%22 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	5c	34,229$1,865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,865.43	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	2c	28,376$689 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688.65	170	18.2%31 W · 139 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+77.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	25,365$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.53	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36ae…3567backed Yes	2c	14,300$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.22	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	1c	13,742$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.91	197	6.6%13 W · 184 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes	3c	11,952$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.31	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	+102.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	3c	10,825$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.57	72	1.4%1 W · 71 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f22…5816backed Yes	4c	10,533$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	10c	10,253$1,009 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,009.33	58	34.5%20 W · 38 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	3c	10,000$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes	5c	9,000$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.03	54	7.4%4 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	8,801$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.94	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes	4c	8,751$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.92	353	55.5%196 W · 157 L	+36.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	8,370$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.91	274	2.9%8 W · 266 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	2c	8,203$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.62	310	3.9%12 W · 298 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	2c	7,942$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.32	291	29.9%87 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes	4c	7,872$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.52	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	7,684$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.28	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	6c	7,648$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.3	64	9.4%6 W · 58 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	2c	7,500$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.57	243	8.2%20 W · 223 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01f5…5cfbbacked Yes	3c	6,752$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes	2c	6,337$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.08	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.15per pick	28cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a06…7b53backed Yes	10c	6,094$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	3c	5,876$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.65	371	7%26 W · 345 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes	10c	5,600$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.86	33	0%0 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes	14c	5,501$744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.43	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	36cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes	1c	4,889$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.55	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71a8…3b90backed Yes	4c	4,691$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	4,649$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.74	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	2c	4,556$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.64	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0df…69c5backed Yes	3c	4,255$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.24	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	6c	4,013$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.23	312	41.7%130 W · 182 L	+15.4wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+66.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a6…8651backed Yes	4c	3,970$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.95	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd902…cdb9backed Yes	17c	3,913$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.2	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Yes	18c	3,567$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.94	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe50…a3f4backed Yes	19c	3,564$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.59	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	12cpaid	+86.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	4c	3,446$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.75	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2948…788abacked Yes	3c	3,216$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.49	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+8.0wins	+0.23per pick	37cpaid	+69.5%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes	2c	3,091$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.52	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	3,032$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.1	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	3,004$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.32	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes	3c	3,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	4c	2,997$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.96	109	13.8%15 W · 94 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	2,952$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.98	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes	3c	2,824$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.35	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	-5.3wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-52%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes	4c	2,698$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.85	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes	4c	2,672$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-7.1wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2dc5…da90backed Yes	3c	2,656$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.15	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3443…4ddbbacked Yes	4c	2,633$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ebc…a21ebacked Yes	18c	2,609$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.85	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.14per pick	17cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7d6…d998backed Yes	3c	2,557$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.14per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bf1…6595backed Yes	4c	2,478$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae46…7889backed Yes	3c	2,327$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	+52.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Yes	13c	2,278$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-4.2wins	-0.28per pick	35cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes	12c	2,278$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-91.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes	5c	2,206$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes	3c	2,200$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.52	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+4.2wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes	5c	2,181$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Yes	19c	2,172$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.51	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-5.0wins	-0.15per pick	24cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x00c0…ffaabacked Yes	13c	2,149$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.88	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-73.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes	17c	2,145$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.66	208	23.1%48 W · 160 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes	7c	2,099$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7750…324dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed Yes	3c	2,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	8cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes	2c	1,990$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.19	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	33cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes	4c	1,987$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.34	146	9.6%14 W · 132 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9c…a838backed Yes	3c	1,862$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-57%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d62…4b5cbacked Yes	3c	1,826$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes	13c	1,811$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.78	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	+65.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed Yes	3c	1,765$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	3c	1,765$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.87	148	8.1%12 W · 136 L	+4.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+238.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	6c	1,651$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.06	281	26.3%74 W · 207 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28fb…cf9bbacked Yes	16c	1,555$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6754…302bbacked Yes	3c	1,513$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.89	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Yes	3c	1,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes	4c	1,500$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.1	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02e6…56b6backed Yes	16c	1,498$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.92	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0639…312fbacked Yes	4c	1,492$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8772…e179backed Yes	3c	1,467$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.23	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…3f31backed Yes	5c	1,464$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf63e…d3afbacked Yes	3c	1,432$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.51	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Yes	4c	1,400$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.15per pick	28cpaid	+33%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf040…d11fbacked Yes	2c	1,398$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.04	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	+3.6wins	+0.11per pick	57cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes	12c	1,384$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.95	72	30.6%22 W · 50 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	2c	1,377$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.79	225	29.8%67 W · 158 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3524…2c23backed Yes	3c	1,367$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.88	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-54%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes	4c	1,321$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd245…2318backed Yes	3c	1,236$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.18	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes	3c	1,221$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.96	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf952…767dbacked Yes	17c	1,180$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.9	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	3c	1,163$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.88	421	20.9%88 W · 333 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	10c	1,141$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.19	156	29.5%46 W · 110 L	+8.9wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed Yes	9c	1,140$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.17	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes	3c	1,121$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.78	47	34%16 W · 31 L	+5.3wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+71.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x676c…b4abbacked Yes	3c	1,110$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.74	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+4.9wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes	4c	1,105$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.12	242	24.4%59 W · 183 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,104$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.34	129	32.6%42 W · 87 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes	2c	1,100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-83.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event