Middle East · resolved market

Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7be7599c20006b0af1b33484bd30f65117122fd74695331345605b13c578f749

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,118,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,118,520 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,786 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	15c	69,205$10,574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,573.87	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	12c	68,019$8,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,288.36	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes	14c	66,716$9,319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,319.08	148	21.6%32 W · 116 L	-24.5wins	-0.17per pick	38cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed No	79c	64,280$50,793 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,487.13	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42f0…fc65backed Yes	0c	49,977$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.95	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a08…64a7backed Yes	18c	41,668$7,580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,580.05	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	21cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9514…2d97backed Yes	67c	39,178$26,274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,274.16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-62%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	19c	34,332$6,391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,390.68	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	14c	25,500$3,568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,568	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No	55c	24,614$13,561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,052.34	152	30.3%46 W · 106 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Yes	11c	21,088$2,352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,352.42	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes	9c	19,181$1,696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,695.72	54	7.4%4 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes	17c	18,903$3,204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,204.01	377	40.1%151 W · 226 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes	14c	18,898$2,611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,610.87	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	7c	18,733$1,381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,380.75	170	18.2%31 W · 139 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+77.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe593…865fbacked Yes	34c	16,902$5,798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,798.26	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe50…a3f4backed Yes	15c	13,714$2,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,003.49	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	12cpaid	+86.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	13,439$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.36	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	2c	12,910$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.1	197	6.6%13 W · 184 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26cb…6233backed Yes	16c	12,228$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	16c	11,944$1,865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,865.28	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No	51c	11,530$5,912 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,618.82	161	25.5%41 W · 120 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	7c	11,059$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$794.93	72	1.4%1 W · 71 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes	10c	11,004$1,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,147.41	156	26.9%42 W · 114 L	-10.6wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-38%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0464…3327backed Yes	11c	11,000$1,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,166	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	17c	10,770$1,780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,780.37	64	9.4%6 W · 58 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes	19c	10,739$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.6wins	+0.33per pick	30cpaid	+69.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x991b…f19abacked Yes	14c	10,677$1,457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,457.24	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes	21c	10,517$2,170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,170.35	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1d…3b54backed Yes	8c	10,390$843 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$842.62	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.18per pick	39cpaid	-4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ca8…d247backed Yes	10c	10,389$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.88	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d9c…27fbbacked Yes	8c	10,173$790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd046…98b1backed Yes	22c	10,045$2,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes	10c	10,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked No	78c	10,000$7,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,249.98	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes	14c	9,942$1,394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,393.54	486	30.5%148 W · 338 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No	9c	9,273$866 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,407.22	306	49%150 W · 156 L	+77.8wins	+0.25per pick	24cpaid	+105.8%equal weight	76+0.24 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Yes	8c	9,092$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722.53	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes	11c	9,023$974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$973.94	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08ea…0751backed Yes	19c	9,000$1,701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,701	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0df…69c5backed Yes	16c	8,692$1,409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,408.93	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19c1…a397backed Yes	14c	8,654$1,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,229.68	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	5c	8,280$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.16	106	34%36 W · 70 L	+6.5wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x612b…6fddbacked Yes	14c	8,248$1,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,151.83	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed Yes	11c	8,080$866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865.63	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	11c	7,879$887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$886.99	408	28.9%118 W · 290 L	-29.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-36%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes	42c	7,842$3,272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,272.23	367	50.4%185 W · 182 L	+39.6wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x00c0…ffaabacked Yes	17c	7,829$1,355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,355.1	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-73.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80c7…4e43backed Yes	27c	7,631$2,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,057.75	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	61cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab57…0319backed Yes	0c	7,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	6cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x359b…70eabacked Yes	16c	7,333$1,157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,156.91	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No	55c	7,311$4,026 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,284.37	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad0e…e763backed Yes	12c	7,195$879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$878.83	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x741e…9b87backed Yes	13c	7,170$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.9	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.4wins	+0.24per pick	46cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes	9c	7,155$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.92	353	55.5%196 W · 157 L	+36.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked No	79c	7,059$5,570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,488.41	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes	21c	7,006$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9d…c0dabacked Yes	38c	6,957$2,616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,615.65	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	+81.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	6,950$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.35	274	2.9%8 W · 266 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d37…2446backed Yes	17c	6,864$1,153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,153.35	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes	20c	6,783$1,329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,329.42	79	38%30 W · 49 L	+9.6wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes	15c	6,659$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef3c…dca8backed Yes	9c	6,538$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f59…3637backed Yes	18c	6,269$1,143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,143.4	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-56%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc77f…1704backed Yes	20c	6,231$1,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,260	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda2e…6c83backed Yes	16c	6,180$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960.32	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes	35c	5,969$2,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,114.81	427	38.9%166 W · 261 L	+30.7wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes	10c	5,856$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.71	191	19.9%38 W · 153 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes	17c	5,759$962 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$962.48	73	30.1%22 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked Yes	14c	5,754$823 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$823.04	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3283…338bbacked Yes	5c	5,750$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97a0…da35backed Yes	9c	5,546$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-47%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes	20c	5,500$1,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,072.5	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.15per pick	28cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…5ad0backed Yes	11c	5,419$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.19	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	17cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b62…f729backed Yes	19c	5,400$1,015 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,015.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a4…e408backed Yes	37c	5,330$1,993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,993.47	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes	1c	5,321$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.38	33	3%1 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes	15c	5,308$778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$778.27	290	27.9%81 W · 209 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	43c	5,290$2,282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,281.85	404	33.7%136 W · 268 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48aa…fccdbacked Yes	9c	5,275$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.28	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec14…6dbdbacked Yes	51c	5,270$2,662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,661.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	8c	5,188$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.73	281	26.3%74 W · 207 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b8…1b30backed Yes	7c	5,080$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.01	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	6cpaid	+353.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes	10c	5,077$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.9	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+18.8wins	+0.15per pick	39cpaid	+128.9%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes	12c	5,012$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.03	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	+65.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f80…2184backed Yes	11c	5,000$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf748…ecb8backed Yes	13c	4,969$651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650.56	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce70…8e18backed Yes	20c	4,900$966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$965.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-19%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf990…3669backed Yes	9c	4,859$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8503…5ebabacked Yes	20c	4,840$966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$966.42	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+115.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0729…c50ebacked Yes	2c	4,836$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.76	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes	5c	4,813$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.13	120	54.2%65 W · 55 L	+10.7wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7951…10cabacked Yes	8c	4,723$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.06	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Yes	14c	4,709$678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$678	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-3.9wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes	39c	4,679$1,837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,837.09	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7031…6a13backed Yes	17c	4,632$776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.97	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8a46backed Yes	22c	4,587$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes	7c	4,551$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e8…d69dbacked Yes	5c	4,503$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.19	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dfb…37a4backed Yes	7c	4,498$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.35per pick	32cpaid	+69.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event