Middle East · resolved market
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5e4db2afabe49640429db7fd4d787f75d5fd60bc1e6f9f9f4936ce2bbd523a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $521,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $521,027 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x376b…d81bbacked Yes | 2c | 157,478$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 11c | 52,102$5,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,785.71 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 36,376$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.45 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 25,891$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.75 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 22,743$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.28 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed Yes | 46c | 21,955$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 3c | 20,329$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.73 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 3c | 15,880$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.6 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 15,360$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 13,131$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.34 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Yes | 3c | 12,102$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…2294backed Yes | 8c | 12,074$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…f557backed Yes | 2c | 11,519$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…d84dbacked Yes | 6c | 10,308$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.39 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 10,272$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.09 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291a…47f6backed Yes | 5c | 10,235$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +528.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 2c | 9,861$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…16d9backed Yes | 0c | 9,770$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 9,388$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.08 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…cfb2backed Yes | 2c | 7,820$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Yes | 2c | 7,677$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,388$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.64 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 4c | 7,288$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.15 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,721$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 2c | 6,293$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.88 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 3c | 6,043$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.61 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 2c | 6,001$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 5,936$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 3c | 5,517$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.37 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…bfa2backed Yes | 4c | 5,206$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 2c | 5,057$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…c6d5backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 4,875$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.07 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 4c | 4,848$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.17 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 4,786$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,750$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 2c | 4,718$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9145…fe79backed Yes | 4c | 4,512$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 5c | 4,279$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 2c | 4,158$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 3c | 4,017$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…0872backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…4548backed Yes | 3c | 3,864$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…8e56backed Yes | 2c | 3,723$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…dd22backed Yes | 1c | 3,534$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ef…418dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,482$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…eddbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,480$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.32 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…3980backed Yes | 4c | 3,326$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.47 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes | 2c | 3,245$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 3,162$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…1439backed Yes | 7c | 3,104$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.82 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…2446backed Yes | 6c | 3,096$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,814$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 5c | 2,643$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.91 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…2e65backed Yes | 2c | 2,640$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 3c | 2,514$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,389$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,358$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes | 2c | 2,325$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…16babacked Yes | 2c | 2,286$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1219…c28dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,283$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…ffbabacked Yes | 6c | 2,038$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.85 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 27c | 1,952$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.39 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,920$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4915…bef1backed Yes | 3c | 1,892$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…2425backed Yes | 16c | 1,833$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…fb37backed Yes | 2c | 1,759$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed Yes | 2c | 1,740$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe30b…114ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,661$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…38f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5efd…e08ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,489$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…0016backed Yes | 5c | 1,484$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9561…5497backed Yes | 1c | 1,483$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf96…3263backed Yes | 14c | 1,424$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…27fbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,398$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 3c | 1,397$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…c6aabacked Yes | 2c | 1,332$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…afd3backed Yes | 5c | 1,323$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 1,321$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40dc…fd14backed Yes | 2c | 1,316$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3524…2c23backed Yes | 3c | 1,312$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2a…6f46backed Yes | 4c | 1,306$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9350…8079backed Yes | 2c | 1,210$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d83…0394backed Yes | 2c | 1,209$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cc…d8e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,195$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bb…3849backed Yes | 7c | 1,177$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 2c | 1,156$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d62…4b5cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,146$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2f…f3f6backed Yes | 4c | 1,144$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0639…312fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,140$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 4c | 1,138$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f99…e0d5backed Yes | 5c | 1,093$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 5c | 1,084$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…191bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,067$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Vahidi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Motahari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Shariatmadari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Maryam Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Massoud Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Yasrebi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohsen Qomi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes won
- Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mustafa Hijri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Nasir Hosseini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Reza Pirzadeh be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Mahsouli be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Saeed Jalili be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?No won
- Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.