TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,310,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$829,183

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,310,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c90,288$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.742920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes1c66,869$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.252729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e04…cb9ebacked Yes0c52,834$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed Yes5c48,045$2,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,634119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-83.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes9c30,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.9950%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c26,739$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.742560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes1c26,620$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.37283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c21,812$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.162522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b97…bc9cbacked Yes2c20,482$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.5140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c19,714$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.296291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes4c15,048$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes3c14,617$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.44553.6%2 W · 53 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes4c14,280$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6278815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c13,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.52003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c12,861$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.86580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes2c11,813$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.37250%0 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeadf…7157backed Yes0c11,720$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7a…d37ebacked Yes1c11,680$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.31216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-67.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c8…de9ebacked Yes9c11,098$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c10,545$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.27865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes2c10,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes1c9,772$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x753f…2a5fbacked Yes2c9,403$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a2…5577backed Yes1c9,244$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c8,340$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.612792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes2c8,264$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.762611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-34.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c7,743$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.253042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8429…4d32backed Yes1c7,046$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c6,970$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.81870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5584…6e2abacked Yes1c6,922$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.532010%2 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e3e…118fbacked Yes4c6,652$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c6,386$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.69850%0 W · 85 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4424…4cc6backed Yes9c6,319$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd4…d37abacked Yes6c5,513$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes3c5,476$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.916010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef6…ea2bbacked Yes6c5,179$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ad…1b61backed Yes1c5,178$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x939b…9cd7backed Yes4c5,135$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.711618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada4…48babacked Yes1c5,064$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.77200%0 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7e67backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c1…c03abacked Yes3c4,941$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ac…1fa1backed Yes1c4,495$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa511…18a3backed Yes6c4,278$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes1c4,257$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-60.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes1c4,133$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.55724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a71…d71dbacked Yes1c4,115$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…33f1backed Yes7c3,879$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd3…1c90backed Yes3c3,812$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c3,747$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.622110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0273…61e4backed Yes3c3,736$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe450…419abacked Yes0c3,667$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b5…5122backed Yes4c3,663$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…9363backed Yes3c3,627$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes2c3,601$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.434316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e24…70a6backed Yes4c3,589$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes4c3,563$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.25147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-84.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes2c3,509$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.21244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-94.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c3,379$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.12717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes1c3,255$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.151717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Yes5c3,241$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes2c3,147$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.252433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c08…af98backed Yes1c3,105$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c3,046$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.28474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes1c3,043$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c3,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a15…7036backed Yes3c2,925$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes1c2,916$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42bb…9edabacked Yes1c2,858$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.17520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+84.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,853$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.691754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e9d…3eb8backed Yes1c2,816$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33b…2372backed Yes4c2,801$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes3c2,768$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a05…b10bbacked Yes2c2,734$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x464a…4aa5backed Yes5c2,570$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc96d…658fbacked Yes2c2,511$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c2,507$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0621713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d93…9ed1backed Yes1c2,453$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-49.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,438$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.81,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9313…ddb5backed Yes4c2,419$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes2c2,370$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.831936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes2c2,364$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.932114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-78.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe54…d876backed Yes1c2,336$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ee…0abdbacked Yes2c2,301$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes3c2,300$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6130%0 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa553…3c98backed Yes1c2,292$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.681040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd052…5476backed Yes8c2,255$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c2,254$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.14486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4694…b41fbacked Yes2c2,187$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf214…b639backed Yes7c2,180$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ea…4285backed Yes2c2,164$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c2,139$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.27700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf1…1db3backed Yes4c2,137$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f43…9447backed Yes4c2,122$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb24…30ccbacked Yes2c2,101$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3066…6895backed Yes1c2,093$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78ae…2969backed Yes5c2,065$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.52110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed Yes1c2,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x387e…56a5backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes6c1,982$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.93911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba54…409fbacked Yes3c1,935$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.78450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.