Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Iran next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb377882b1358774d40e246cbb18c5539c837ae30423f73dbb0fc39f8484817df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,563,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,352,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,563,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d77…0a03backed Yes | 0c | 202,739$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…a6c0backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce34…21a0backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…b26fbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x352c…116bbacked Yes | 0c | 51,340$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…b1cbbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…3932backed Yes | 0c | 39,430$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c31…610dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c6…fe2dbacked Yes | 0c | 29,700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e5…97fabacked Yes | 0c | 28,053$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…273fbacked Yes | 0c | 27,497$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…7a14backed Yes | 0c | 25,700$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b05…b43ebacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd66…f058backed Yes | 0c | 23,183$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1a…6c60backed Yes | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb58e…588bbacked Yes | 5c | 21,897$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…6068backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…eb6dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c1…e407backed Yes | 3c | 18,757$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abb…8b68backed Yes | 0c | 18,061$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea1…bdb4backed Yes | 1c | 17,438$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…a70dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4937…0675backed Yes | 0c | 14,180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…36a4backed Yes | 1c | 13,883$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaab…df00backed Yes | 1c | 12,008$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…eb4fbacked Yes | 1c | 11,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2d…6feabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 9,262$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.02 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…469dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,915$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0b…d461backed Yes | 0c | 7,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,482$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa269…0ba4backed Yes | 4c | 7,192$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…5c53backed Yes | 1c | 6,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…1b27backed Yes | 6c | 6,048$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fa…b547backed Yes | 0c | 6,046$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…0b48backed Yes | 0c | 6,023$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa526…f3d6backed Yes | 1c | 5,921$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…b57cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,065$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…377fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,391$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…db8abacked Yes | 0c | 4,327$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…3ae9backed Yes | 3c | 4,200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524f…9dcebacked Yes | 1c | 4,156$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,895$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.24 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…8a4dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,657$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.56 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 6c | 3,500$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4383…4f2bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,413$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…2f4dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,243$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f3…c4a6backed Yes | 7c | 3,200$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…a2bebacked Yes | 11c | 2,817$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd09f…ad19backed Yes | 1c | 2,519$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…06a3backed Yes | 2c | 2,387$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,368$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.21 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89bb…18c7backed Yes | 0c | 2,340$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc4…135abacked Yes | 4c | 2,330$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,148$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.9 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b8…6c30backed Yes | 6c | 1,964$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c79…33a3backed Yes | 8c | 1,887$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf902…6ec6backed Yes | 1c | 1,885$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…33a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,879$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…f19dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,837$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23a…a82ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,744$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dda…411cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,736$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…911ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,716$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…9491backed Yes | 1c | 1,675$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…8f24backed Yes | 8c | 1,534$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 12c | 1,405$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 4c | 1,380$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…0a7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,354$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,309$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.97 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,190$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…772abacked Yes | 2c | 1,159$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a7…519ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,076$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a1…63f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,072$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed Yes | 5c | 1,065$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 2c | 1,028$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…65eebacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.86 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 931.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…5cdbbacked Yes | 1c | 911.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7711…d77fbacked Yes | 1c | 901.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…cc4ebacked Yes | 2c | 831.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…90f5backed Yes | 24c | 825.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55a…0c7fbacked Yes | 2c | 810.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 783.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 771.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 740.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…312ebacked Yes | 15c | 669.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 14c | 655$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaa…b2f4backed Yes | 7c | 642.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61c…f19cbacked Yes | 3c | 629.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 3c | 625.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 27c | 611$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.97 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…cf10backed Yes | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 13c | 545.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed No | 73c | 543$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Iran next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.