Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Somalia next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x317641172982bb79b97ff50b6cbbefbd3f3e56c8bca4a0114849fd289383799c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $294,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 21,892$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.22 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…eb6dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 15,407$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.5 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 23c | 13,830$3,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,244.48 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 2c | 10,600$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.32 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 10,303$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.74 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,130$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff5…a783backed Yes | 1c | 10,002$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 4c | 6,721$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.62 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…eb4fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed Yes | 6c | 3,447$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 12c | 2,614$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.12 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833d…c788backed Yes | 8c | 2,293$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 8c | 2,200$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.97 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 29c | 2,142$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.56 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked Yes | 34c | 2,102$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.88 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,919$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,353$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 67c | 1,226$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.72 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 41c | 1,145$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 13c | 1,097$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 67c | 973.24$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.81 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 16c | 900$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 44c | 799.99$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 4c | 750$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 749.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…09dcbacked Yes | 60c | 742.9$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.21 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed Yes | 49c | 720$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 51c | 690$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9552backed No | 35c | 607.95$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +1,548.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 51c | 598$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 74c | 585.07$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.49 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 58c | 570$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 42c | 570$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3307…375cbacked No | 43c | 563.4$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…5cdbbacked Yes | 10c | 529.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked Yes | 43c | 524.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 48c | 513$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 42c | 508$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.64 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 59c | 507$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed Yes | 58c | 492$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc048…57bcbacked Yes | 56c | 474$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 52c | 461$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 35c | 444.68$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.04 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 59c | 419$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.21 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…8539backed No | 29c | 415.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 63c | 409.46$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.85 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 74c | 400$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 382.13$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.82 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 30c | 368.03$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.82 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…05b3backed Yes | 70c | 361.59$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 12c | 360$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 58c | 352$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.16 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 57c | 349.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.49 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 42c | 326$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.08 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 49c | 308$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…e764backed No | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +199.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…4b43backed No | 32c | 299.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 26c | 298.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 295.7$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…d8d0backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 292.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 33c | 288$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.96 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 52c | 284$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 54c | 282$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked No | 46c | 282$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc18…d912backed Yes | 7c | 280.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 8c | 259.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 68c | 245.1$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.42 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…8f24backed Yes | 9c | 232.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 226.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.14 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 59c | 219$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.21 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked No | 51c | 212$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe920…6d44backed No | 42c | 208.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 45c | 204.28$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…8c4fbacked Yes | 74c | 203.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b7…41aabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 52c | 193$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a9…e80cbacked Yes | 7c | 181.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 41c | 176.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.79 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 71c | 175.4$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aeb…0c42backed Yes | 59c | 170.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 36c | 169.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…fc3dbacked No | 55c | 168.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 50c | 161.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…ec6fbacked Yes | 63c | 158.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 152$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…7b2dbacked Yes | 67c | 149.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked No | 48c | 141$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 53c | 127.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed No | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Somalia next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.