Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Syria next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e9325844cccb59ab5c8a439922f15a338f8397609cfeb910612551b3890c8ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $643,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $686,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $643,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x897e…b600backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…41bfbacked No | 1c | 24,830$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 0c | 19,401$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c1…e407backed No | 1c | 17,908$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…a814backed No | 1c | 15,451$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2c…3d39backed No | 0c | 11,013$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…b1cbbacked No | 0c | 10,312$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…0da7backed No | 1c | 9,018$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…8f57backed Yes | 45c | 8,979$4,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,932.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 78c | 6,043$4,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.43 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes | 35c | 5,962$2,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,856.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 20c | 5,835$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.71 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…5878backed No | 0c | 4,944$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dda…411cbacked No | 1c | 4,794$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 4,727$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 7c | 4,550$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.42 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 6c | 3,300$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.56 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55a…0c7fbacked No | 0c | 3,169$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed No | 10c | 3,100$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.6 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 2,923$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.54 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…90f5backed No | 4c | 2,631$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 3c | 2,469$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f7…1a91backed No | 1c | 2,454$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…e043backed No | 1c | 2,215$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 38c | 2,149$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.31 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 1,816$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.69 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 17c | 1,645$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.87 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 42c | 1,492$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.82 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2827backed No | 4c | 1,430$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…312ebacked No | 8c | 1,277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 12c | 1,240$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 67c | 1,157$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.93 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,138$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.44 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed Yes | 17c | 1,133$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 12c | 1,123$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 17c | 955$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes | 12c | 954$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 863.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 17c | 755$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9552backed Yes | 3c | 664.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +1,548.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 13c | 645$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 17c | 609$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa377…a2ccbacked Yes | 3c | 581.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.56 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes | 12c | 580$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +204.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 30c | 565$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.32 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33bd…b636backed No | 5c | 554.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 20c | 537.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…133bbacked Yes | 39c | 532.05$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 38c | 531.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.93 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x350b…9fe1backed No | 24c | 508.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…0409backed No | 18c | 500$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked No | 15c | 470$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 12c | 467$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8913…4ba9backed Yes | 43c | 458.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 14c | 446$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 12c | 437$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…79fcbacked No | 24c | 421.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 3c | 415.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 10c | 411.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…96b7backed Yes | 34c | 406.59$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 393.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed Yes | 17c | 381$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…12d9backed No | 12c | 364.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 9c | 339.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.07 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 17c | 321$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +88%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 77c | 301.86$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 299.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 13c | 292$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…5cdbbacked No | 5c | 285.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 17c | 283$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.89 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 12c | 283$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 275.67$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 43c | 273$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.33 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 12c | 269$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 17c | 268$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.44 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 69c | 263.97$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.49 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 14c | 253.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 12c | 252$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.76 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 5c | 248.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 41c | 245.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 67c | 244.82$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 72c | 237.05$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…230bbacked Yes | 12c | 229$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 15c | 218.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes | 12c | 212$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…9632backed No | 9c | 205$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 68c | 204$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 202$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.84 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…60ebbacked No | 10c | 200.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 12c | 199$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed Yes | 76c | 196.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2e…36fdbacked No | 18c | 196.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked Yes | 14c | 188$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…ee19backed No | 16c | 178.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 12c | 164$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.32 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Syria next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.