Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike another country first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf31506df84945df7616a52b39f9601a1fd361b1e1a53970a02c9940c2d6b22ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa36c…eb6dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…6068backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c31…610dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 8,398$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,597$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 0c | 4,463$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…7b81backed Yes | 1c | 3,813$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,331$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…e11fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,090$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 1c | 1,447$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 2c | 1,349$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8a…6ef8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…4f4fbacked Yes | 1c | 928.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe406…858cbacked Yes | 1c | 675.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…e11dbacked Yes | 2c | 456.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…edfdbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike another country first?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.