TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7176…6f9f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
86
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 57 out of 100; worst Movies at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$76.78
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.91
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$60.9
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.28
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.88
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$30
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$187
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$335.34
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+208.2%+$104.03
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.01
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.73
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.59
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$392.58
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.39
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$604Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$151
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.12
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$108.85
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$135
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$75.12
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$344Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+40.8%+$140.65
Will Trae Young be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$235.6
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+74.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22.22
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$521Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$521.18
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85.43
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+177.8%+$558.72
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+376.2%+$112.97
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+203%+$72.36
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+614.3%+$388.72
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$113.68
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$626Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$626.08
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+40.8%+$80.91
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$76.84
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+108.3%+$73.32
Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.2
Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+88.7%+$10.34
All 14 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.2
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.62
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$78.25
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$336.28
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$439.5
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$363Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$362.88
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$20.7
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$48.1
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$109.48
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+334.8%+$537.46
Will "Priscilla" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+28.2%+$72.6
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$134.55
Will Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+138.1%+$220.4
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$497Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$497.34
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+67.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Harbaugh be fired by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$261.66
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+26.6%+$9.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+143.9%+$665.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$150.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$995Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+33.3%+$331.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$154.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.