Movies · resolved market

Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf73022b1f931ea3db47d10ed89c8e895cf0adbaa51fbd1f4e0f7170337f36359

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $78,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $78,156

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,872 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2934…9a60backed No	22c	1,271$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$991.38	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes	76c	1,208$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$917.66	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7086…f376backed No	22c	1,149$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$896.22	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed No	20c	1,125$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes	79c	1,027$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.72	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca87…3701backed No	17c	958.77$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$798.56	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+3.6wins	+0.23per pick	40cpaid	+118.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No	20c	953$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$762.4	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x668b…3884backed Yes	77c	941$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.57	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	18c	935$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$763.08	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed Yes	75c	922$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.5	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Yes	80c	892$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713.6	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked No	17c	889$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$737.87	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No	20c	861$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$686.8	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed No	22c	759$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$592.02	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked No	18c	742$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$611.9	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3df6…0f0fbacked No	19c	741$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$602.33	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes	80c	718$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.4	50	46%23 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	21c	714.58$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$567.56	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes	78c	711$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.58	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7176…6f9fbacked No	23c	698$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$537.46	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed No	22c	665$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$521.64	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed Yes	78c	641$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.24	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed No	25c	629$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.75	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked No	19c	625$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.37	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd320…81a5backed Yes	77c	605$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.85	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed No	18c	592$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$485.44	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39dd…1bb5backed Yes	78c	581$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.18	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes	78c	576$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.28	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x502b…a7a9backed No	20c	562$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.6	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	41cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed No	22c	538$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$419.64	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed Yes	80c	524$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.2	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-38%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2971…b901backed No	20c	521$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416.8	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+3.7wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed No	20c	503$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$402.4	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x365f…d215backed No	17c	502$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416.66	14	50%7 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+39%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	28c	500.24$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360.89	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes	78c	497$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.66	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed No	17c	494$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.4	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d89…637ebacked No	12c	493$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$435.49	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+115.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked No	17c	492$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408.36	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked No	22c	477$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$372.06	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked No	18c	473$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$387.86	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No	26c	453$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$335.22	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed No	18c	435$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$356.7	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.6wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+90.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed No	17c	434$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360.22	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+5.6wins	+0.24per pick	45cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed No	23c	431$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.87	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed No	23c	426$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.02	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed Yes	77c	426$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.02	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No	23c	410$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.7	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe136…cacebacked Yes	78c	400$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed Yes	78c	385$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.3	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed No	22c	382$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297.96	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked Yes	78c	370$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.6	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes	78c	369$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.82	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked No	17c	368$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.44	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No	23c	366$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.82	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b5…4ca3backed No	17c	362$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.46	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+85.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed No	23c	360$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.2	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes	80c	359$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.2	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes	78c	354$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.12	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	8c	352$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$323.84	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed No	23c	345$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.65	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a2…3dfcbacked Yes	78c	333$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.74	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.6wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked Yes	78c	317$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.26	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed Yes	80c	305$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed No	16c	301$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.84	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf049…29fdbacked No	24c	301$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.76	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3f0…f05fbacked No	20c	295$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.32per pick	40cpaid	+101.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed Yes	80c	295$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.23per pick	44cpaid	-56%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	13c	288.02$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.33	672	32%215 W · 457 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No	22c	288$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.64	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d9…4c53backed No	17c	285$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$237.97	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed No	19c	284$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.51	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e1…d9c1backed No	17c	277$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$229.91	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+4.3wins	+0.28per pick	45cpaid	+86.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed No	17c	276$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.21	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes	79c	263$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.77	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked No	22c	261$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.58	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+5.7wins	+0.27per pick	44cpaid	+90.5%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No	15c	259$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.15	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked No	18c	249$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.18	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde23…62e9backed No	17c	248$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.84	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	9c	229$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.6	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed No	17c	229$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.07	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	41cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed Yes	76c	228$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.28	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-6.1wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No	24c	228$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.28	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed Yes	78c	224$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.72	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-5.2wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked No	17c	224$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.92	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	18c	223$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.08	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed Yes	77c	213$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.01	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No	8c	209$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.28	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+6.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes	75c	209$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.75	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed No	24c	209$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.84	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed No	17c	209$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.47	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed No	17c	208$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.64	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed Yes	78c	208$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.24	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes	78c	205$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.9	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No	15c	204$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.34	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No	8c	199$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.08	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+97.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x326e…c7b9backed No	7c	196$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.28	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+124.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed No	22c	187$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.86	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+4.1wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+21%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	76c	177$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.12	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-9.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No	7c	171.65$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.64	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event