Movies · resolved market
Will Sean Penn be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8707d91e34d57853ccc29e49423fc3d724c062b15fc00ef9943d55813a8b7fea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 3c | 3,781$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 3,297$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 7c | 1,336$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 6c | 1,300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…7038backed No | 12c | 1,212$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 2c | 771$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeeb…3f5bbacked No | 5c | 624.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 542.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 6c | 542.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 4c | 277.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 4c | 251.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3dd…b67dbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 6c | 220.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 9c | 202$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 5c | 201.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 14c | 133.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sean Penn be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Akira Emoto be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Andrew Garfield be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Benicio Del Toro be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Delroy Lindo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jude Law be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kevin O'Leary be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Mark Hamill be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Miles Caton be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Oscar Isaac be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Paul Dano be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sean Bean be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Stellan Skarsgård be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Stephen Graham be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Takehiro Hira be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.