TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2971…b901

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
124
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Movies, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 59 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT2254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+46.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Movies — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,365Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,420.86
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.64
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.17
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$76.02
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+243.9%+$156.74
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.5
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$18.56
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+72.4%+$37.38
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$21.93
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+354.5%+$99.06
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+354.5%+$136.5
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$29.76
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+163.2%+$36.58
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+92.3%+$32.64
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+400%+$416.8
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+92.3%+$49.44
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$14.49
Will "Jay Kelly" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Will "Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$74.1
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.62
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+440.3%+$70.9
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$41.6
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$141
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.2
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$122.72
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+25%+$16
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.84
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.21
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$36.48
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$71.61
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.45
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$29.43
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.74
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.25
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.65
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$13.6
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$12.42
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+51.5%+$13.94
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.26
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,251Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$462.78
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,082Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+25%+$270.4
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$115
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$349.8
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+376.2%+$91.64
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$18.6
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+88.7%+$211.03
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+177.8%+$26.88
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+212.5%+$29.92
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+69.5%+$44.28
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$96.9
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$14.43
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+69.5%+$56.17
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+40.8%+$64.09
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+39%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.2
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$140.94
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$476.28
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$338.59
GPT ads by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+170%+$181.95
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$162.14
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+56.3%+$133.2
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+104.1%+$64.26
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+297.2%+$261.89
Will Atlas introduce ads by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.9
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$47.08
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+223.4%+$45.59
All 13 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+82.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$299
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+334.8%+$135.52
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+426.3%+$109.35
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$31.62
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+244.8%+$64.61
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$65.52
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.8
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$19.14
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+284.6%+$59.2
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+72.4%+$26.88
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+64.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.4
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$18.2
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+393.3%+$145.9
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.03
Will Chris Carr win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.97
Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+566.7%+$68.85
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.75
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$279.3
Canada recession before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$270.2
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.97
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$71.94
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$21.28
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 62% and 64%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$15.47
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+75.4%+$15.05
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$76.12
All 8 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-67.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+111.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+95.3%+$200.57
Will NEC win on 2026-01-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+127.3%+$477.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+316.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BYU make the College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10.15
Will Tulane make the College Football Playoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$38.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BNB dip to $600 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$364.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alan Keating be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+222.6%+$122.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$53.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$14.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$16.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$149.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$269.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$35.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$27.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Grambling State Tigersbacked Grambling State Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$150.89
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.