AI · resolved market
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96bf98f3d9f18f712e2b781835ee7043914cef131b709528b210a4b13f1050dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,196$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.7 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 64c | 880$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…6e3abacked Yes | 37c | 742$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.46 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 65c | 726$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 64c | 648$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…6d76backed Yes | 64c | 601$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 36c | 595$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 36c | 551.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc0…fab9backed No | 36c | 523$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -74%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 63c | 520$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 35c | 434$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 20c | 418.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 36c | 370$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 64c | 370$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 64c | 369$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked No | 36c | 369$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a5…2165backed Yes | 68c | 361.57$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 36c | 356$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.16 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 72c | 351$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed Yes | 28c | 351$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…43fdbacked No | 20c | 306.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed Yes | 40c | 297$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed No | 60c | 297$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 35c | 292$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 36c | 285$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 64c | 265$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…7289backed No | 36c | 265$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed No | 36c | 245$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 63c | 222$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1003…5154backed Yes | 52c | 192.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 166.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 40c | 126.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…2213backed No | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 12c | 124.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Yes | 28c | 120.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 57c | 101.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…f934backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 28c | 98.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0f…cea3backed Yes | 61c | 81.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 47c | 80.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked No | 64c | 77.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 65.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…f299backed Yes | 76c | 63.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 42c | 57.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 55.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7e…ccdabacked Yes | 72c | 53.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9bf4backed Yes | 42c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…e4e1backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…635dbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 56c | 49.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 54c | 44.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…fc02backed Yes | 46c | 43.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6931…00d4backed No | 43c | 42.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…0af7backed No | 61c | 42.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 34c | 42.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…3a26backed Yes | 46c | 40.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 43c | 40.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 53c | 39.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…4339backed No | 49c | 39.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8570…5e0abacked No | 63c | 38.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…4714backed Yes | 79c | 37.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a98…4f01backed No | 62c | 36.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 60c | 33.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x525b…00ecbacked Yes | 43c | 33.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 68c | 30.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…1824backed Yes | 45c | 28.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…c8d7backed No | 37c | 27.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…c795backed No | 73c | 27.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174f…8443backed Yes | 40c | 26.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…5e84backed No | 62c | 25.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 62c | 25.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…c5cebacked Yes | 47c | 23.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?this page
- Will ChatGPT be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will Google Gemini be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will Google be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will Paramount+ be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will Threads be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will UpScrolled be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.