AI · resolved market
Will Threads be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbdb7570b034a1577ce385c99348301bac79ad1bdaa3f0737c082e55383a97d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,587$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.58 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 39c | 1,423$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed Yes | 37c | 988$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked No | 61c | 770$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 24c | 757$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.68 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed No | 63c | 637$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 61c | 479$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.81 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked No | 76c | 462$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 34c | 351.13$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.85 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed No | 63c | 351$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 76c | 295$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 57c | 240$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 42c | 239.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 66c | 212.89$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…a34fbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 199.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…e584backed No | 75c | 196.75$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 61c | 174$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked No | 69c | 136.58$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0522…02f4backed No | 50c | 107$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…fec1backed Yes | 22c | 100.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe109…8ec3backed Yes | 56c | 89.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 75.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 35c | 70.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 72c | 55.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7e…ccdabacked No | 76c | 52.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 44.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…ab75backed No | 49c | 41.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 33c | 39.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 38.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 36.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 34.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e09…8ba4backed Yes | 39c | 33.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…5124backed Yes | 50c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Threads be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?this page
- Will ChatGPT be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will Google be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will Paramount+ be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will UpScrolled be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.