TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x01ad…9e91

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
91
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Stocks, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 55 out of 100; worst Weather at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST2339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+85.2%+$17.04
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+719.3%+$143.87
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$10.76
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+38.9%+$7
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+233.3%+$46.67
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+34.6%+$44.94
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+38.9%+$38.89
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+132.6%+$66.28
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+92.3%+$46.15
All 23 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Stocks — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+185.7%+$37.14
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+104.1%+$52.04
Will Tesla dip to $330 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+25%+$2.5
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,860 on the final trading day of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+97.7%+$19.54
Will NVIDIA dip to $176 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+85.2%+$17.04
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,960 on the final trading day of January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+85.5%+$17.09
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$359Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$184.01
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+105.8%+$21.17
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
ChatGPT Outage by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+104.9%+$20.99
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Threads be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+69.2%+$13.83
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+270.5%+$177.18
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$94.11
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+56.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+77.2%+$15.44
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+112.8%+$22.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+91.7%+$18.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Rybak win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+86.3%+$17.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Patrik Antonius win at Hustler Casino on February 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.