TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,392

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes17c4,092$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.951,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No63c4,037$2,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.5513941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ec…c239backed Yes39c2,308$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes20c2,158$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.54728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed Yes39c1,910$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.64825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c02…ba96backed Yes7c1,148$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4106100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes41c863.48$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.2435151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No74c720$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1894057.5%23 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d3…c5afbacked Yes41c717.96$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.91944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3016…9af6backed Yes2c713$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes29c670.83$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.911216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes32c646.47$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.675335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-67.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No80c420$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842688.5%23 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8317…18e3backed Yes35c400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed Yes42c400$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf811…69babacked No56c392.72$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.731625%4 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes45c391.8$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.4860229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c348.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.231,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c329.94$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3422129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes40c304.95$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.952718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes22c293.44$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5919934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x494f…00c9backed Yes36c263$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93e0…c9a5backed Yes36c262$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes16c257.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3699038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f3…7bdcbacked Yes36c257$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2470…3375backed Yes36c250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac2…877dbacked Yes36c249$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be6…56acbacked Yes36c242$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b1…799abacked No62c241.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.942075%15 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39ba…70cabacked Yes36c237$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…d89dbacked No52c230.01$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.49742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No61c210$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.93622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes25c200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493450%17 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x339e…be97backed Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc934…5551backed Yes47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9460%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f4a…ae97backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c183.1$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9186338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x42f0…120ebacked No59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No64c157.61$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.556548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dce…4682backed No69c148.76$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.122937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes68c146.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006036.7%22 W · 38 L-8.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-36.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No61c135.55$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.547726%20 W · 57 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6483…3f18backed Yes23c134$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.821040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1515…27debacked Yes39c130$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes39c129.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.363148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Yes42c119.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No51c115.89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9213147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes42c110.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6480%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdce7…f553backed Yes35c106.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.17560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+202.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes11c105.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01ad…9e91backed No49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.041070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No77c100.89$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.715947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cbb…b9d1backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb60d…bfb5backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-81.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc999…ca09backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x617a…b4f1backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102010%2 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-85.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a1c…e455backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356870.6%48 W · 20 L+12.0wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf663…264ebacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0626…1845backed No64c99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac08…7a52backed No64c98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9360…7e47backed No64c98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa89…1961backed No64c97$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed Yes39c94.91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.011747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c9…61abbacked No64c94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f4…64c0backed No64c94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7f…9f61backed No64c94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2f…2239backed No64c93$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa716…fb34backed No64c93$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef56…69f3backed No64c92$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x466f…45e6backed Yes36c92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb3…ba2ebacked No64c92$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30bd…d22abacked No64c91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6040…d3f5backed No64c91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3822…a48fbacked No64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1952…b372backed No64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b1…16b4backed No64c87$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d7…0279backed No64c87$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4760…5739backed No64c86$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fde…ec96backed No64c86$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed No75c84.79$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.21250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes32c84.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1516418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d75…b263backed No79c76.06$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.06944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes55c63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5243838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05c…d8fcbacked Yes24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a3a…c380backed Yes47c59.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+99.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ec0…ce2ebacked Yes37c54.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No72c52.73$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.742638.5%10 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick23cpaid+11.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes20c50.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.071241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c1…6eb3backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x624b…6190backed Yes28c49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes40c29.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.