Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla reach $450 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe003f1ae3f8ce931074c5125d1ed2569e297f1edeb6a5887587c1b5df25aad9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 36c | 1,804$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.44 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,720$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.69 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…c5afbacked Yes | 50c | 1,639$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 28c | 1,277$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.21 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 77c | 1,143$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.64 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 59c | 1,119$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.92 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 852$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 35c | 552.04$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 20c | 463.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed Yes | 47c | 434.74$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 78c | 405.24$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed No | 59c | 400$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 41c | 317.7$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 305.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 35c | 254.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 50c | 251.62$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…7676backed No | 72c | 241.75$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…d768backed No | 53c | 208.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 199.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 70c | 175.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked Yes | 45c | 162.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 161$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 123.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 15c | 119.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 117.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 106.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 27c | 104.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3074…bae5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8851…3f95backed Yes | 56c | 91.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked No | 80c | 87.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…ce2ebacked Yes | 26c | 65.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 45c | 62.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…f2f2backed No | 75c | 47.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1515…27debacked Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…6ad4backed No | 53c | 41.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…1e7ebacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…4b56backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…d0e9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…d567backed Yes | 32c | 37.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 58c | 36.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed No | 66c | 34.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x915d…b65cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 40c | 29.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked No | 50c | 22.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla reach $450 in February?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $293 in February?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $330 in February?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $360 in February?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $405 in February?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $465 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $480 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $503 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $533 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.