Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $360 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2de525175e49b98d54dc295c44eecf419b1f055ccdaeb632b7a3c9d64dd24950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,153$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 7c | 1,154$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…45a9backed Yes | 20c | 710$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Yes | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 72c | 674.91$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.23 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 72c | 612.5$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.31 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 64c | 538.26$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.26 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…ce2ebacked Yes | 10c | 452.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed Yes | 35c | 300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 34c | 270$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 79c | 201.4$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 46c | 116.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 52c | 113.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bd…94b9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 95.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 77c | 80.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 58c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 66c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 33c | 40.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 55c | 28.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…16b9backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $360 in February?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $293 in February?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $330 in February?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $405 in February?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $450 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $465 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $480 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $503 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $533 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.