Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $405 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe7322af5a2a31ca097ab57ac19484f93cf7486a3b25959d4633d5fd02e16180
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 63c | 339$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 36c | 299.16$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 20c | 216$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x103b…c4ebbacked No | 34c | 188$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c83…fe04backed No | 34c | 186$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…ae20backed No | 34c | 186$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6275…f558backed No | 34c | 176$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf69…80d5backed No | 34c | 172$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…b5d0backed No | 34c | 169$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…f234backed No | 34c | 168$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…e3f7backed No | 34c | 167$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…4b3dbacked No | 34c | 155$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…d89dbacked No | 18c | 113.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…f9a6backed Yes | 66c | 98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ae…5e75backed Yes | 66c | 98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…41d8backed Yes | 66c | 97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d1…dd66backed Yes | 66c | 97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…756cbacked Yes | 66c | 97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…12bdbacked Yes | 66c | 96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd971…2639backed Yes | 66c | 96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 58c | 95.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…79e6backed Yes | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…7f84backed Yes | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…5aedbacked Yes | 66c | 94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…8cb0backed Yes | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa7…3bf2backed Yes | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…6d35backed Yes | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…f66fbacked Yes | 66c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e6…b214backed Yes | 66c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…3f73backed Yes | 66c | 85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…2ed9backed Yes | 66c | 71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 80c | 56.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…116dbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $405 in February?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $293 in February?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $330 in February?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $360 in February?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $450 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $465 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $480 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $503 in February?No won
- Will Tesla reach $533 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.