Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbe335576024805eab8f9da0aeb2f59db740605c6d314a8d861b100fa57fcfca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $261,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,216 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 74c | 17,555$13,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,490.18 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 36c | 9,370$3,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,337.95 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 32c | 8,790$2,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,839.17 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 43c | 7,918$3,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,491.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 7,422$5,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.65 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 12c | 7,411$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.67 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…b4f4backed No | 9c | 6,767$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 9c | 6,424$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.84 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 76c | 6,095$4,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.85 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 57c | 6,008$3,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.6 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 74c | 5,854$4,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.39 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…35b2backed No | 0c | 5,770$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 37c | 5,445$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,422.83 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…066ebacked No | 46c | 5,000$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +94%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 34c | 4,597$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,048.81 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked Yes | 78c | 4,487$3,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed No | 53c | 4,439$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,335.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 4,250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 18c | 3,643$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed No | 9c | 3,274$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed No | 6c | 3,050$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +138%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 5c | 2,910$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 65c | 2,773$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.91 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 42c | 2,677$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.81 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…d427backed No | 48c | 2,581$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 70c | 2,454$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 28c | 2,408$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 60c | 2,400$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 67c | 2,320$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.3 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…25f8backed Yes | 79c | 1,926$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 77c | 1,873$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.16 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 28c | 1,844$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.82 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 10c | 1,827$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.23 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked No | 47c | 1,659$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 18c | 1,651$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +68%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 11c | 1,638$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.23 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 52c | 1,524$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.92 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 1,411$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 34c | 1,379$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.88 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,327$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.16 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 32c | 1,311$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.04 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked No | 63c | 1,300$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 45c | 1,230$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.06 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 64c | 1,111$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.28 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,094$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 23c | 1,054$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 66c | 1,011$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.28 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,006$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 975.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 30c | 952.24$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.94 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 37c | 940.33$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 69c | 900$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -13.0wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…be37backed Yes | 64c | 898.09$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…7277backed Yes | 78c | 874.81$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.47 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 14c | 871.24$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 803.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 61c | 799.98$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.99 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed No | 11c | 783.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 32c | 770.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 764.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed No | 51c | 747$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb12…dbd2backed No | 8c | 719.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…3e93backed No | 34c | 693.8$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 25cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…3168backed No | 52c | 684.94$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 17c | 676.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 72c | 640$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.83 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 24c | 615.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 56cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 611.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 58c | 600$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 42c | 535.8$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.54 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed Yes | 75c | 529.54$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 29c | 516.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 3c | 515.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 73c | 500$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…5c53backed Yes | 47c | 500$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +91%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…0b32backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…b99bbacked No | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56d…d20bbacked Yes | 52c | 484.99$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 70c | 483.13$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 66c | 455.9$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.41 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…f351backed Yes | 66c | 454.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 433.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 56c | 415$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 73c | 412.04$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.93 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…2e35backed Yes | 73c | 408.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 41c | 399.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.99 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked Yes | 63c | 393.4$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b6…6b22backed Yes | 60c | 386.84$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed No | 39c | 382$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 59c | 366.45$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…741fbacked No | 48c | 360.25$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 80c | 345.6$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…3ca1backed No | 13c | 336.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 65c | 329$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 40 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.