Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d7cf8b881e865cba731d3a633300e2cd93e9f7b69ba0676970ca2011251507e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 39c | 8,793$3,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,463.93 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 48c | 5,559$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.03 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 76c | 5,295$4,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed No | 71c | 4,323$3,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.87 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 3,410$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.7 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,936$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 33c | 1,916$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.25 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 37c | 1,838$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 78c | 1,795$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.16 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…66f2backed Yes | 38c | 1,750$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,105$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.1 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 13c | 1,075$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.11 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 35c | 1,000$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.02 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e01…2c8abacked No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 70c | 974$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 17c | 954.15$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.79 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 70c | 947$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 63c | 845$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…9bf5backed Yes | 30c | 835.1$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked No | 63c | 834$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 63c | 827$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 20c | 826.73$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 70c | 817$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 30c | 801$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked No | 30c | 791$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 70c | 775$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 13c | 740$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…82e3backed Yes | 21c | 704.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 71c | 700.02$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 13c | 671$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked No | 30c | 655$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 30c | 628$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…8f2bbacked Yes | 21c | 621.02$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…158ebacked Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…f844backed Yes | 18c | 401.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4c…f88fbacked Yes | 33c | 305.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…bb19backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ed…5f7ebacked Yes | 21c | 294$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes | 66c | 288.15$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.18 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…b0fdbacked Yes | 8c | 265$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes | 68c | 250$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 10c | 203.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 22c | 191.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…2605backed Yes | 34c | 175$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6494…c1b7backed Yes | 23c | 154.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…7347backed No | 77c | 129.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…5acfbacked Yes | 23c | 129.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 56c | 124.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…356abacked Yes | 22c | 121.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b8…3eb6backed Yes | 57c | 120$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 75c | 118.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…a36dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.8wins | +0.38per pick | 35cpaid | +271.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…eb60backed Yes | 54c | 92.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 42c | 90.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…b492backed No | 77c | 89.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…8218backed Yes | 27c | 73.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 23c | 66.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 24c | 63.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 54c | 60.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…85abbacked Yes | 34c | 56.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked No | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…81ebbacked Yes | 20c | 53.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes | 40c | 49.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…f285backed Yes | 41c | 46.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Yes | 66c | 44.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 69c | 43.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 67c | 42.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa998…d1f2backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked No | 78c | 38.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…ca9cbacked Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267b…290abacked Yes | 74c | 31.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 31.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…db07backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…b3e8backed Yes | 57c | 19.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 40 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.