Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcff8b613e75b8bb915d9beea7817e7839d14e0a9143da4e3c08867416f979c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $389,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa659…1eaabacked No | 8c | 4,001$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 6c | 3,646$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.73 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed No | 8c | 3,286$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…3e93backed No | 5c | 2,933$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 25cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed No | 16c | 2,797$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 79c | 2,642$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 2,636$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 8c | 2,222$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed No | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 24c | 1,426$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.93 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…a7d1backed No | 3c | 1,400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 1,329$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…b0e9backed No | 3c | 1,281$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 4c | 1,241$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 5c | 1,100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 3c | 1,100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e01…2c8abacked No | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 75c | 999.99$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 5c | 990.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked No | 24c | 842.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 4c | 682.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed No | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 78c | 593.94$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked No | 18c | 576.28$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…a067backed No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 23c | 546.32$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14b…f271backed No | 2c | 499.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 79c | 444.33$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 9c | 443.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 7c | 319.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 310.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…35c3backed No | 8c | 260$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…708ebacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 6c | 241.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 232.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 17c | 223$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 10c | 222.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed No | 16c | 209.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…b044backed No | 8c | 202.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…385bbacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 78c | 187.63$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 23c | 181.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 167.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Yes | 77c | 165.34$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…e550backed No | 21c | 148.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860f…ab8abacked Yes | 66c | 142.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be8…e44fbacked Yes | 77c | 134.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…316bbacked Yes | 77c | 133.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 12c | 131.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d53…b56ebacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…c959backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f85…5f69backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…bf3bbacked No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d19…24ccbacked Yes | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…e282backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…1e59backed No | 19c | 63.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…e672backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…ff78backed Yes | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -81%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9d…f0b7backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…fdb8backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…f8a5backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…545dbacked Yes | 79c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 40 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.