Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc86fda998556b3c7ebde6c71f58c527442aa527b6db4627ef6bf9d1b9d00259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 6c | 5,230$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.05 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 8c | 3,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.15 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 13c | 2,826$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.03 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 5c | 2,431$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.37 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 52c | 2,318$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 18c | 1,702$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.22 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab6e…4b46backed No | 1c | 1,304$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 71c | 1,215$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.64 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 5c | 1,200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 51c | 1,130$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.14 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 43c | 962.87$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.78 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 815.02$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.36 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 28c | 734.53$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed No | 32c | 519.39$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 11c | 464.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 3c | 424.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 330.28$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.51 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 14c | 320.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…26a7backed Yes | 61c | 296.36$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed No | 10c | 245$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed No | 7c | 187.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 44c | 185.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 20c | 174.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 36c | 170.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…0c6fbacked Yes | 11c | 140$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +408.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 32c | 132.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…e84fbacked Yes | 14c | 118.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +612.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef3…2ea2backed No | 30c | 109.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 97.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…daaebacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 78c | 67.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 25c | 62.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…0063backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…81ebbacked Yes | 70c | 44.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 49c | 43.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…bbfabacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked No | 78c | 14.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 40 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.