Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1589c771ac14fdcda0a06ac9ee4375b6005d9d1e7469a9fffea0f7dea13e5633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 42c | 6,410$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,740.52 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 46c | 5,932$2,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745.95 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 48c | 2,274$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.81 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 1,436$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.52 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 58c | 1,351$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 68c | 1,206$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.01 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed No | 40c | 1,065$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.97 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 27c | 1,046$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…66f2backed Yes | 53c | 1,000$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 16c | 896.61$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.27 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 862.32$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 24c | 807.76$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 40c | 740$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.26 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 25c | 720.93$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.43 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes | 78c | 700$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 12c | 650$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…d969backed No | 52c | 579.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 80c | 567$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.15 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 31c | 509.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.43 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…8f2bbacked Yes | 37c | 446.27$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…82e3backed Yes | 57c | 350.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes | 61c | 348.87$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b74fbacked Yes | 32c | 253.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 249.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…356abacked Yes | 44c | 243.45$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 243$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 64c | 239.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 66c | 230.68$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 70c | 215$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.59 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…0db1backed Yes | 32c | 206.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…bb19backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1718…8ceebacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…cfbdbacked No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b21…4fa9backed Yes | 50c | 197.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…b0fdbacked Yes | 13c | 195$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ed…5f7ebacked Yes | 52c | 172$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 55c | 156$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…eb60backed Yes | 58c | 154.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…6507backed Yes | 9c | 152.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…158ebacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…7347backed No | 74c | 135.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 65c | 131.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 51c | 126.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 59c | 119.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 22c | 109.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 100.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…f285backed Yes | 52c | 76.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…c558backed Yes | 65c | 69.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 34c | 67.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked No | 49c | 61.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 31c | 55.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked No | 66c | 53.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…fc85backed Yes | 32c | 53.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18a…ebdcbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…ada9backed No | 64c | 48.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137d…8358backed No | 67c | 44.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 55c | 44.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…ca9cbacked Yes | 50c | 40.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…8818backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 75c | 34.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x688d…fb8ebacked No | 63c | 31.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 30.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked No | 47c | 30.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed No | 56c | 18.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 40 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.