Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f1f643ab7589b143e35a6545241cfb80890a5dbd63b74c600baa35c26d0b315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $369,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $350,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $369,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 28,643$10,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,177.86 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 48c | 18,744$8,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,922.38 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 40c | 14,797$5,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,906.46 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 28c | 13,380$3,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,637.59 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked Yes | 30c | 12,581$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,812.73 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…3c41backed No | 54c | 10,212$5,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,547.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 23c | 6,687$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.6 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 67c | 6,369$4,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.9 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed No | 73c | 4,647$3,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,383.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 26c | 4,509$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,331.41 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 47c | 4,239$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.14 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 44c | 3,905$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 32c | 3,514$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 61c | 3,436$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 40c | 3,379$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.33 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed No | 49c | 3,228$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.24 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.9 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 22c | 2,954$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,316.46 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 29c | 2,581$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.24 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…5e22backed Yes | 76c | 2,507$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 45c | 2,390$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,374$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.08 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 15c | 2,355$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.95 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 57c | 2,257$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.59 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 9c | 2,079$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 19c | 1,870$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.85 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 64c | 1,779$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.14 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…34bcbacked Yes | 33c | 1,759$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 27c | 1,608$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.92 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,476$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 17c | 1,390$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 18c | 1,378$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.28 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 41c | 1,318$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.16 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 1,205$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 64c | 1,120$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.16 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 51c | 1,100$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed No | 4c | 1,033$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713c…41bbbacked Yes | 29c | 1,028$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +216.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…5acfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,019$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Yes | 21c | 1,005$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 13c | 1,004$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…bcefbacked Yes | 75c | 1,003$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.5 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe92…c15bbacked Yes | 35c | 931.86$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 19c | 900$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…18fcbacked No | 4c | 872.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes | 28c | 810.04$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 31c | 766.13$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.21 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed Yes | 36c | 755.64$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…7277backed Yes | 40c | 750.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…e08dbacked Yes | 30c | 729.73$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 23c | 726.93$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd400…c7e9backed Yes | 19c | 725.1$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +266%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…8f2bbacked No | 12c | 709.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Yes | 15c | 677.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1718…8ceebacked Yes | 68c | 672$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…82e3backed Yes | 39c | 642.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 56c | 580$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 56c | 580$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.8 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -13.0wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 59c | 578.21$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.94 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 44c | 574.32$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.31 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 15c | 570$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc20…06f9backed Yes | 17c | 569.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 555.85$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.78 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4260…5e65backed Yes | 62c | 555.37$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 17c | 549.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…9e1ebacked Yes | 30c | 537.85$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 54c | 523.94$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.24 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 27c | 507.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.59 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 10c | 505.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.7 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed2…bb52backed No | 79c | 504.28$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 35c | 502.01$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.01 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…0596backed No | 15c | 489.86$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 20c | 484.83$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.83 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3e…3417backed Yes | 37c | 461.13$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 67c | 459.47$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.84 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked No | 57c | 445.08$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 40c | 433.33$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 32c | 418.24$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.83 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…23d4backed No | 76c | 412.3$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ed…5f7ebacked Yes | 31c | 400.03$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 395.68$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.41 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 40c | 370.29$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.83 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 72c | 370$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 33c | 367.29$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.48 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 361.76$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.95 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61eb…6aa7backed Yes | 14c | 361.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +171.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…6507backed Yes | 48c | 358.51$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 30c | 352.16$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.37 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…8d38backed No | 62c | 346.58$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…a36dbacked Yes | 7c | 319.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.59 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.8wins | +0.38per pick | 35cpaid | +271.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6801…7030backed No | 57c | 297.08$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2636…8bcabacked Yes | 9c | 293.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +585.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 30c | 290.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.13 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 26c | 288.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 40 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.