Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcedf1f2566ab30f054ad59f7f6bdf477cc37775d70615c8ff577a8eb77eb0e41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 11,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed No | 1c | 8,775$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed No | 2c | 6,300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…7be6backed No | 9c | 2,609$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…914dbacked No | 1c | 1,884$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…edabbacked No | 1c | 1,868$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 1,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…884dbacked No | 2c | 583.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 40c | 365.5$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.57 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 36c | 33.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 40 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.